📰 Today's Quick Overview (April 26)
News Dimension: Core Events & Market Interpretation
Geopolitics: Trump announces the cancellation of the U.S.-Iran representative meeting schedule; Iran claims it may hold a second round of negotiations in the coming days. The back-and-forth negotiations trigger risk-off sentiment, causing crude oil to surge and Bitcoin to experience a short dip before bouncing back.
Policy Regulations: Trump issues a strong statement "warning bankers not to obstruct cryptocurrency legislation"; China's central bank strictly prohibits virtual currency marketing. The policies of China and the U.S. are forming a "fire and ice" situation, with the U.S. sending positive signals while China continues to tighten.
Institutional Funds: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling $1.9 billion. BlackRock's IBIT holdings have reached 812,000 BTC (approximately $63.7 billion). Institutions continue to dollar-cost average buy, forming strong bottom support.
Quantum risk: Approximately 6.9 million Bitcoins face quantum attack risks, lacking a unified defense roadmap. This long-term concern has sparked discussions but has not yet been fully reflected in prices.
Technical signals: The MACD has released a bullish signal at the weekly level for the first time in 5 months. The RSI is in the "acceleration zone" at 65.20. Institutions view this as an important reference for momentum switching, leading bulls to prefer increasing their positions.
Price position: As of the afternoon of the 26th, around $77,342, slightly down 0.3% from the previous day. The market continues to grapple just below the $80,000 mark.
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1. Today's financial industry news
1. The US-Iran negotiations are fraught with ups and downs, while oil prices surge against the trend.
Late night on the 25th Beijing time, the US-Iran situation took a dramatic turn. Trump announced on social media the cancellation of the US delegation's trip to Islamabad to meet with Iran, calling it "a waste of too much time on travel" and stating that there is "internal strife and chaos" in the Iranian leadership. He emphasized that the US "holds all the cards" and that if Iran wants to talk, they can "just call directly."
As soon as the news broke, the crude oil dark market instantly surged—Brent crude jumped to about $100.85 per barrel, New York crude to about $95.71 per barrel, and WTI crude retreated from its peak of $114 but remained high. Bitcoin briefly plummeted in sync but quickly rebounded to about $77,546, with over 80,000 liquidations across the market within 24 hours.
It's worth noting that, according to reports from CCTV on the same day, Iranian diplomats stated that the two countries' delegations "may hold the second round of negotiations in the coming days" and have conveyed to the US side a request for Trump to tone down threatening rhetoric. If the US stance softens, Iranian hardliners are more likely to support participation in the negotiations.
2. Trump strongly supports crypto legislation.
Trump issued a clear warning at a recent crypto conference—prohibiting bankers from using their industry influence to obstruct the passage of crypto-related legislation. This statement marks a significant shift in executive support for the crypto industry, moving from previous "verbal encouragement" to a phase of "substantial obstacle removal."
At the same time, Senator Cynthia Lummis revealed that the crypto market structure bill has gained bipartisan support in Congress. Successful legislation will provide the long-missing clear rules for trading, custody, and exchange regulation, significantly lowering the legal and compliance barriers for institutional capital to enter.
📌 A sharp contrast: On the same day, the People's Bank of China and eight departments jointly released the (Management Measures for Online Marketing of Financial Products), explicitly prohibiting the provision of online marketing services for virtual currency issuance and trading. This measure will officially take effect on September 30, 2026. The disparity in regulatory paths between China and the US in crypto is further widening.
3. Hong Kong's Web3 institutional innovation is blossoming in multiple areas.
From April 20 to 23, the "2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival" released multiple regulatory breakthrough signals. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission officially announced a new framework allowing licensed virtual asset trading platforms to launch trading of tokenized bonds, marking the world's first clear regulatory arrangement of its kind. The government plans to submit a regulatory bill for digital asset trading and custody services to the Legislative Council within the year, and tokenization of various assets such as precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy is also being advanced simultaneously.
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2. Core factors affecting Bitcoin's trend
📊 Bullish logic
Driving force: Core logic
The ETF capital attraction effect continues. The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of $1.9 billion in 7 days, with BlackRock's IBIT holdings reaching 812,000 BTC. Institutional ETF demand continues to exceed miner daily production—averaging about 3,000 BTC net buys per day in April, showing a clear supply-demand gap.
Strategy continues to accumulate heavily. Strategy bought 34,160 BTC (approximately $2.54 billion), bringing total holdings to 815,060 BTC, with an average price of about $75,527. The released corporate demand signal cannot be ignored.
Technical indicators are flashing bullish signals. The weekly MACD has turned green for the first time in 5 months, and the RSI is in the bullish "acceleration zone" at 65.20 (60-70), not yet in the overbought zone. Institutional traders see this as a favorable entry point.
The ceasefire risk preference is warming up. The Iran ceasefire framework continues, and the S&P 500 has surged about 13% this month, with the Nasdaq up over 19%. The "risk preference window" for asset allocation is opening up, making Bitcoin the primary beneficiary as a liquidity conduit.
📉 Bearish pressure
Suppressing factors: Core logic
$80,000 is a strong resistance level. It has touched the $78,000 zone for several consecutive days without effectively breaking through. The technical chart shows a "boss level"; if it continues to fail to break out, it may activate a potential double bottom risk, with a possibility of testing the $60,000 range again.
The back-and-forth in US-Iran negotiations has triggered wild fluctuations. News is driving significant price volatility—there is a risk of "war premium fading" impact, as well as potential stage-wise risk-off selling due to unexpected escalation (reflected in the extremely low probability in the prediction market).
Powell's handoff is about to be revealed. The Fed rate decision and Powell's potential "last meeting" will take place this week, with market expectations for rate cuts this year significantly shrinking (down from two cuts expected at the beginning of the year to less than one). The interest rate remains high, continuing to suppress the overall valuation of crypto.
Leverage pressure across the board is symmetrically distributed. There is about **$715 million** in short liquidation pressure above $80,974, while there is a similar pressure of about $715 million in long liquidation below $74,180. This highly symmetric liquidation structure means that regardless of which direction the price breaks, it could easily trigger a concentrated chain reaction of "short squeezes" or "long liquidations."
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3. Comprehensive analysis of price trends
🎯 Short-term (this week)
Bitcoin's rebound this month has been significant, but the $78,000-$80,000 range still forms an unbreakable "ceiling." The price approached $80,000 several times last week but faced clear selling pressure, with liquidation pressure creating a highly symmetric congestion in this area.
This week faces the test of a "super week":
· The tech stocks' "seven giants" are intensively releasing earnings reports;
· Fed rate decision (likely the last meeting chaired by Powell);
· The news from the US-Iran negotiations continues to disrupt the market.
The bullish dynamics have amplified the probability of determining a directional trend in the short term—breaking through $80,000 will activate a short squeeze, triggering a rapid move toward $85,000 or even $90,000**; however, if it cools down during earnings season and macro resonance, it will quickly shift to test the pressure near **$74,000.
💡 Polymarket real-time data visually confirms the current high uncertainty: The latest prediction market pricing suggests a probability of about 49%** for dropping below $75,000 in April, and a probability of about 42% for reaching $80,000, with bullish and bearish expectations nearly at "fifty-fifty."
🔭 Medium to long term (second half of the year)
Institutional dollar-cost averaging is continuing to strengthen—the likes of BlackRock have incorporated Bitcoin into their "global model portfolios," and the automated rebalancing mechanism is continuously injecting buying pressure into millions of retirement accounts, thereby forming a "mechanical support bottom" near $74,000. If the US Congress's crypto market structure bill is enacted, combined with the deepening of Hong Kong's tokenized asset policy, the compliant capital channels and tradable asset categories will significantly expand, helping to support a steady upward shift in the medium to long term.
Risk reminder: This week, closely track the following key events—
· ⚡ Whether the second round of US-Iran negotiations will restart (Iranian diplomats hinting it may happen "in the coming days");
· 📋 The earnings reports of the "seven tech giants" and the Fed rate decision are driving a switch in global risk sentiment;
· 🔬 6.9 million Bitcoins face quantum threats, and the industry currently lacks a unified defense route. If attack capabilities are further confirmed, it will create a notable short-term emotional impact.
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Disclaimer: The above content is based on publicly available news as of April 26, 2026, and does not constitute any form of investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please assess your risk tolerance and make independent, prudent decisions. $BTC
