One of the biggest blunders you can make with your trades is changing a long-term position because of something you saw on social media.
You take a position based on a higher-timeframe thesis. Then you see someone post a 1H or 4H chart showing a bearish setup You start questioning your trade. You panic. And eventually, you sell your position.
Then a few days later, price does exactly what you originally expected.
Don’t do this.
If your thesis is based on the higher timeframes, don’t let lower timeframe noise change your conviction. And don’t let someone else’s opinion change your bias simply because they sound confident. They may be looking at the exact same chart from a completely different perspective.
it should always be: Your timeframe. Your thesis. Your plan.
Lower-timeframe price action can give you information, but it shouldn’t automatically invalidate a higher timeframe thesis.
Know why you entered. Know what would invalidate your thesis.
Price tapped that zone and bounced, followed by the rejection.
$82,800-ish is also the last swing high / lower high, which should ideally be protected in my opinion.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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$BTC
Shouldn’t really pull back too deep here. Ideally, we find some support around the $83,500–$84,000 zone.
We had a high-timeframe breakout this week.
Generally, you wouldn’t want to see price trade above an important HTF level, only for the breakout to be short-lived and price to drop back below it again.
If that happens, then yeah things become very fascinating.
Shouldn’t really pull back too deep here. Ideally, we find some support around the $83,500–$84,000 zone.
We had a high-timeframe breakout this week.
Generally, you wouldn’t want to see price trade above an important HTF level, only for the breakout to be short-lived and price to drop back below it again.
If that happens, then yeah things become very fascinating.
Don’t let social media cloud your vision. Don’t let it make you feel upset, make you feel like you missed it, or make you think the opportunity is already gone.
Do your best, put your blinders on, and focus on ONE thing: Getting an allocation you’re comfortable with.
A lot of people will tell you: “You missed the bottom.” “You should have bought earlier.” “Now it’s too late.” Blah blah blah.
Let me show you something. You missed nothing.
Look at Bitcoin’s previous higher-timeframe structure shifts
2018: BTC shifted its structure after roughly a 115% move. What happened after that? Another major expansion of around 900%.
2023: BTC shifted its structure after roughly a 60% move. What happened after that? Another major expansion of around 400%.
2026: BTC has shifted its structure after roughly a 45% move. So what changed? Nothing.
This is only the first leg. Bitcoin is shifting its structure on the higher timeframes. I’m not saying history has to repeat exactly the same way, but the point is simple: Don’t let one initial move convince you that the entire opportunity is gone. Are you going to cry about the first move? Or are you going to position yourself for what could come over the next few months?
You don’t need to chase price. Ignore everyone telling you that you’ve missed it. Open the chart. Identify the key zones. Plan where you’re willing to start allocating capital if the market gives you discounts.
I’ve talked about position sizing many times. Position yourself slowly and deliberately. There is no perfect price. You need a good plan and good execution.
$ZEC is now up 2x from my Buy I reduced a portion of my trade but still holding a good size, probably going to hold the rest for now.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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This is the kind of chart that is worth your attention. An all-time-high breakout. You only need one line for your bias. As long as price holds above that level, you expect the trend to continue higher. Use lower timeframe for your entry triggers.
Could be: A pullback A sharp dip liquidating late buyers A lower timeframe consolidation breakout A lower timeframe sweep
There are multiple ways to trade a bullish chart. You just need to plan it the right way.
$BTC Broke through the major resistance yesterday with a big green candle + high volume. People really freak out on every red candle and start calling it a fake breakout already.
I think the chart looks pretty clean here. Small pullbacks after a big impulse move are completely fine as long as price doesn't fade the whole move.
As long as price holds above the breakout area, this looks fine to me.