Countdown to the Fed Leadership Change! Next Week’s FOMC Wraps Up, Crypto Market Faces Pricing Overhaul

The global macro market is hitting a disruptive turning point! The Fed's power transition is in its final countdown, and next week's FOMC meeting is set to drop key signals. Powell's tenure is coming to an end, and Kashkari is stepping in strong. The forward guidance framework that's been in place for 15 years is on the verge of collapse, ushering in an era of price discovery without signals!

The U.S. Department of Justice has officially dropped its criminal investigation into Powell, clearing the biggest political hurdle for Kashkari’s takeover. Market predictions show that the probability of Kashkari being approved before Powell's term ends on May 15 has skyrocketed to 84%. The FOMC meeting on April 29 is likely to be Powell's last appearance as Fed Chair.

Kashkari has already sent strong signals for tough reforms, openly calling for the abolishment of the dot plot and dismantling the forward guidance system, which directly shakes the hidden foundation of global asset pricing. Meanwhile, Powell has proactively downplayed policy guidance, paving the way for new policies. This macro policy shift is not just a simple personnel change; once forward guidance disappears completely, the volatility in global stocks, bonds, and forex markets will surge, and the crypto market will also face a reconstruction of macro pricing logic, amplifying short-term volatility and setup opportunities.

The current market has yet to fully price in this upheaval. Every statement from Powell at next week’s meeting will be magnified by the market, directly impacting the direction of major asset classes.

With the Fed bidding farewell to forward guidance and macro uncertainties heating up, do you think the crypto market will see a new wave of intense volatility? Will Kashkari’s ascendance rewrite the macro pricing logic for crypto assets?
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