Hey crypto fam, happy weekend to all! I’m Kai. Today is April 25th, Saturday.
Since it’s the weekend, the intraday volatility might be relatively calm, but the price action on Monday is going to be crucial. Recently, the market has skyrocketed from the 60000 bottom, peaking near the 80000 mark, with a nearly 20000 point super bounce that has sent the entire market sentiment soaring. Countless traders have been itching to jump in over the past few days, worried about missing out, and have been flooding my DMs asking, 'Kai, is Bitcoin ready to take off? Is it too late to jump in now?'
No beating around the bush, in today’s weekend recap, Kai is breaking down the logic of both the macro and micro cycles for everyone. One key takeaway: Don't FOMO, keep your hands steady, chasing pumps at high positions is just giving money to the whales!
📉 Macro picture: The rebound is approaching its extreme; the third main down-leg is gathering momentum.
In trading, the biggest taboo is letting those few big bullish candles in front of you blind your eyes.
Many retail traders look at the weekly-chart level strong rebound and think the bull market is back. But if we review history, we’ll find that the real major bottom in a bear market has never been lifted directly by a single “V-shaped reversal.” A complete bear-market correction usually needs to go through three-step waves of decline to accomplish the bloody turnover of positions.
We’ve already gone through the first two waves. Now, this push that’s approaching 80,000 is essentially a stage adjustment by the main force to liquidate short leverage and create a short-term squeeze-and-rally “forced long” illusion. Near 80,000, it’s highly likely to be the limit of this rebound!
Where is the real bottom? Brother Kai’s script hasn’t changed: the main force must initiate the third leg of the main downward impulse, breaking below 60,000—the whole market is staring at this integer level. Only after this wave of chasing-long bulls is completely wiped out and liquidations are clean, will the market truly start building a bottom. So, spot army, please remain patient—once it breaks below 60,000, that’s the perfect opportunity to stagger in and pick up bloodied shares!
⚔️ Intraday short-term scenario: The long structure hasn’t broken, but chasing longs at the highs will get you killed!
Back to the board for our short-term trading. Since the big direction is bearish, can we just short it with our eyes closed?
In plain words: right now, the difficulty of trading short-term is extremely high—both bulls and bears are walking a tightrope.
Although on the chart the 1-hour level bullish arrangement hasn’t broken yet, look closely at the details: every time BTC has recently broken above its previous highs, immediately afterward there’s a wave of deep pullback and washout. This kind of market structure clearly tells you—chasing longs at the highs is a death sentence!
🎯 Brother Kai’s BTC (Bitcoin) trading plan:
• Absolute no-go zone: Absolutely no chasing longs on any form of upside breakout at high levels.
• Right-side sniper: Wait patiently for the 1-hour level long structure to completely break (a bearish pattern of drop–rebound–another drop). Then we enter on the right side in line with the trend to set up medium- to long-term short positions.
• Left-side trial-and-error: If you’re really itching to try to top-tick at the current level, you can only use a very light position as a probe, and you must strictly set a stop-loss above the previous high. Once a trend reversal is confirmed, then consider adding.
💎 Ethereum (ETH) password: Weak price action—shorts have the better price-to-probability!
Compared with BTC’s strong tug-of-war, Ethereum’s current走势 has exposed the bulls’ true fatigue.
1. Demand is weakening: Ethereum’s recent rebound hasn’t even broken the previous highs. The highs keep moving lower, and on the weekly chart there’s a long upper shadow left above—buying power is extremely weak.
2. Potential head-and-shoulders top: On the 1-hour level, Ethereum is building a potential “head-and-shoulders top” structure, and the right shoulder is clearly trending lower.
🎯 Brother Kai’s ETH (Ethereum) trading plan:
Around 2250 below is an extremely critical neckline support. If you’re considering building a left-side short position, Ethereum currently offers much better price-to-probability than BTC. Once 2250 is broken decisively with volume, Ethereum will accelerate its drop, and the medium- to long-term targets are directly set below 1800!
💡 Brother Kai’s summary
In the trading market, living longer is always more important than making money faster.
Faced with the tempting 20,000-point rebound, not FOMO is the biggest test for traders. On the weekend, spend more time with your family and adjust your mindset. At the start of next week, keep an eye on the breakout signals in the market structure—follow Brother Kai’s rhythm, and patiently hunt the big meat in this main down-leg!