🔍 1. Recent rebound events and triggers

October political game triggers 'roller coaster market'

Plummet: On October 11, due to Trump's threat of '100% tariffs on China', Bitcoin plummeted 17% in a single day to $101,500, Ethereum fell 22%, and the total liquidations across the network reached $19.1 billion.

Rebound: On October 12, Trump's deputy, Pence, released a signal of easing ('willing to negotiate rationally with China'), market panic eased, Bitcoin rebounded nearly 10% within 24 hours, surpassing $115,000, and Ethereum rose over 11%.

Policy sensitivity: The crypto market is highly sensitive to geopolitical rhetoric, and policy shifts can instantly reverse sentiment (e.g., tariff threats → negotiation statements).

Federal Reserve policy expectations dominate liquidity

Powell hinted on October 15 that "quantitative tightening (QT) may end," and even expanded the balance sheet to $5 trillion, signaling liquidity easing.

Combined with the cooling of the U.S. CPI data in September (annual rate of 2.8% lower than expected), the market's probability of an interest rate cut in October has risen to 98.3%, with funds flowing back into risk assets.

Institutional actions and regulatory breakthroughs

Trump pardons Zhao Changpeng: On October 24, the Binance founder was granted clemency, causing BNB to soar 8%, boosting market optimism about the compliance process.

Traditional finance enters: JPMorgan allows clients to use BTC/ETH as collateral; the U.S. Treasury plans to relax cryptocurrency tax policies (such as exempting unrealized gains tax for MicroStrategy).

⚠️ Two, Structural Risks Behind the Rebound

High leverage bubble has not yet cleared

During the crash on October 11, the proportion of positions with over 50x leverage surged, with a 5% price fluctuation triggering a chain liquidation.

Even during the rebound period (e.g., October 13), over 180,000 people faced liquidations totaling $630 million, making double liquidations the norm.

Altcoin liquidity crisis

Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) rebounded quickly, but altcoins generally fell over 70%, with some tokens (e.g., IOTX) nearly going to zero. Market makers withdrew capital to cover losses in mainstream coins, leading to a liquidity drain in the altcoin market.

Market manipulation and policy uncertainty

Whale insider trading: Trump's son Barron accurately shorted before tariff policies, earning over $80 million.

The U.S. government shutdown and the imminent implementation of the EU MiCA framework have amplified volatility in a regulatory vacuum.

📈 Three, Technical Analysis and Capital Movements

Key support/resistance levels

Bitcoin: $104,000-$112,000 is the short-term consensus support zone; if it breaks $117,000, it may trigger a new upward channel, but falling below $100,000 increases risk.

Ethereum: $3,800 is a strong support level; breaking $4,220 could confirm a reversal signal.

Capital flow

Institutions are buying the dip: In October, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day inflow of $430 million; Japanese listed company Quantum Solutions bought 2,365 ETH in a week.

Stablecoin issuance (e.g., Tether minting $1 billion USDT at a time) indicates an influx of new capital.

💡 Investor Warning:

Leverage risk: 90% of liquidations stem from high leverage long positions; avoid contract positions greater than 10% of total investment.

Policy black swans: Comments from Trump, the U.S. shutdown, and EU regulations could trigger panic; real-time tracking is necessary.

Altcoin traps: The end of the bull market may not see a repeat of altcoin season; stay away from Meme coins and low liquidity tokens.

💎 Five, Key Conclusions

This round of rebound is essentially a technical correction driven by "policy expectations + liquidity recovery," rather than a fundamental reversal. In the short term, it is influenced by the Fed's interest rate cut (at the end of October) and the trends of the U.S. elections; in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the completeness of regulatory frameworks (e.g., stablecoin legislation) and the scale of institutional entry (e.g., Bitcoin ETF fund flows). The market is still in a high-volatility cycle, and surviving is more important than making quick money.

Buffett warns: "Never use leverage, as no one knows how crazy the market can get." In the crypto world, risk control is the only moat to navigate bull and bear markets.