Trader on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market in the United States, currently gives a 66.6% probability that President Donald Trump will be impeached before January 2028, with this contract trading over 2.76 million USD.

The odds have more than doubled since November 2025, when the market was just starting near 30%, with this contract peaking above 70% in March before slightly retracing to current levels.

The risk from the midterm elections is fueling bets.

This Kalshi impeachment contract will be settled as 'yes' if the U.S. House passes the impeachment articles, verified through congress.gov, and does not require a Senate conviction or removal from office.

This shift indicates heightened expectations about future political issues, even though the outcomes remain uncertain, as noted by popular account Walter Bloomberg on X.

This ongoing climb reflects traders' expectations regarding the 2026 midterm elections, with a separate prediction market giving about a 71% chance that Democrats will regain a majority in the House.

A Democratic majority is likely to push forward with impeachment proceedings, similar to the two times the House voted for impeachment during Trump's first term.

Geopolitical tensions are also contributing to this rising chance, as Trump's stance on Iran and the Hormuz Strait has led some Democratic lawmakers to call for impeachment or to invoke the 25th Amendment again.

However, the separate Kalshi market regarding impeachment is running at a significantly lower trading volume, just around 27%, requiring a two-thirds vote in the Senate or the use of the 25th Amendment.

Prediction markets can be wrong as well, which traders learned from the 2016 presidential election.

As of April 22, 2026, no official impeachment proceedings have been initiated.

Whether the odds continue to rise will largely depend on the outcomes of the midterm elections in November, as well as Congress's reactions to the administration's foreign policy decisions.