Tonight's CPI outlook, after so many days of standstill, finally has the first macro-related data today.
Let's first take a look at today's various opinions on CPI, the current market expectations are similar.
Total CPI: Month-on-month +0.4%, Year-on-year ~3.1%
Core CPI: Month-on-month +0.3%, Year-on-year ~3.1%
These figures are pretty much the same in surveys by Reuters, The Wall Street Journal/MarketWatch, Bloomberg, and other media...
Their main viewpoint is that the current rise in CPI is due to tariff impacts... But it should still be a one-time effect (which means it will decline afterwards).
Housing-related inflation might slow down even more...
However, everyone generally expects that although inflation is rising, the employment data during the recent shutdown period might be worse (although the employment data has not been released yet), so the Federal Reserve will still pay more attention to employment data. Therefore, even if inflation is rising, the probability of a rate cut next week should not change much...
So, today's CPI will at most have an impact on intraday sentiment, with limited impact on the medium term (like next week's rate cut)...
If CPI is higher than expected, it is estimated that in the short term it will negatively affect intraday sentiment...
And then gradually oscillate and digest...
Similarly, if it is below expectations, it may probe the upper resistance level again...
But for now, do not expect to break above the current range... After all, there are currently huge narratives pressing down (FOMC, trade war, options expiration)...
If it meets expectations, then continue the market game...
In short, in my personal opinion, CPI data will not trigger a major trend, even if there are emotional fluctuations intraday, they will ultimately return to the current range and continue to oscillate...
Of course, as long as they don't give an especially outrageous and frightening data, that would be fine...
Let's first take a look at today's various opinions on CPI, the current market expectations are similar.
Total CPI: Month-on-month +0.4%, Year-on-year ~3.1%
Core CPI: Month-on-month +0.3%, Year-on-year ~3.1%
These figures are pretty much the same in surveys by Reuters, The Wall Street Journal/MarketWatch, Bloomberg, and other media...
Their main viewpoint is that the current rise in CPI is due to tariff impacts... But it should still be a one-time effect (which means it will decline afterwards).
Housing-related inflation might slow down even more...
However, everyone generally expects that although inflation is rising, the employment data during the recent shutdown period might be worse (although the employment data has not been released yet), so the Federal Reserve will still pay more attention to employment data. Therefore, even if inflation is rising, the probability of a rate cut next week should not change much...
So, today's CPI will at most have an impact on intraday sentiment, with limited impact on the medium term (like next week's rate cut)...
If CPI is higher than expected, it is estimated that in the short term it will negatively affect intraday sentiment...
And then gradually oscillate and digest...
Similarly, if it is below expectations, it may probe the upper resistance level again...
But for now, do not expect to break above the current range... After all, there are currently huge narratives pressing down (FOMC, trade war, options expiration)...
If it meets expectations, then continue the market game...
In short, in my personal opinion, CPI data will not trigger a major trend, even if there are emotional fluctuations intraday, they will ultimately return to the current range and continue to oscillate...
Of course, as long as they don't give an especially outrageous and frightening data, that would be fine...