📉 BTC is forming a bottom? Funding rate negative for 46 consecutive days, a rare signal since the FTX collapse
The funding rate of BTC has been negative for 46 consecutive days, a number that has only appeared after the FTX crash in 2022 and the final bear phase of 2021. Both instances were precursors to very strong rally phases afterward.
I am monitoring a few interesting on-chain signals that are in sync:
→ RHODL Ratio reached the 3rd highest level in history, indicating BTC is moving from short-term traders to long-term holders
→ Coinbase Premium positive for 9 consecutive days, US retail is still steadily accumulating through the spot channel
→ BTC broke through $77K and retraced, with many bottom signals confirmed
What I like about the current setup is that all 3 signals agree with each other. Prolonged negative funding means short leverage is dominating, indicating that the market has become overly pessimistic.
📊 Personal assessment:
→ When shorts are too crowded, even a small catalyst can cause a strong short squeeze
→ However, on-chain metrics often lag, and history does not guarantee a 100% repeat
→ I prefer DCA weekly instead of going all-in at a price level, to ease psychological pressure if there is another liquidity sweep
Are you leaning towards the scenario that the bottom has formed, or is there another final drop to come?
$BTC #Bitcoin
The funding rate of BTC has been negative for 46 consecutive days, a number that has only appeared after the FTX crash in 2022 and the final bear phase of 2021. Both instances were precursors to very strong rally phases afterward.
I am monitoring a few interesting on-chain signals that are in sync:
→ RHODL Ratio reached the 3rd highest level in history, indicating BTC is moving from short-term traders to long-term holders
→ Coinbase Premium positive for 9 consecutive days, US retail is still steadily accumulating through the spot channel
→ BTC broke through $77K and retraced, with many bottom signals confirmed
What I like about the current setup is that all 3 signals agree with each other. Prolonged negative funding means short leverage is dominating, indicating that the market has become overly pessimistic.
📊 Personal assessment:
→ When shorts are too crowded, even a small catalyst can cause a strong short squeeze
→ However, on-chain metrics often lag, and history does not guarantee a 100% repeat
→ I prefer DCA weekly instead of going all-in at a price level, to ease psychological pressure if there is another liquidity sweep
Are you leaning towards the scenario that the bottom has formed, or is there another final drop to come?
$BTC #Bitcoin