Analysis of Commodity Trends Under the Easing of Geopolitical Tensions: Energy, Precious Metals, Industrial Metals, and Agricultural Products Show Significant Divergence

1. Energy Sector (Oil, Natural Gas): Risk Premium Easing, Supply and Demand Dynamics Determine Direction

Short-term prices of oil and natural gas are under pressure, primarily due to the rapid clearance of geopolitical risk premium. The ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has directly alleviated market concerns about disruptions in energy supply. If the Black Sea energy transport routes are simultaneously reopened, Russia's crude oil and natural gas export volumes are expected to gradually recover, further exacerbating downward price pressure. However, the extent of price declines is constrained by the pace of Western sanctions relief on Russian energy—if sanctions are not simultaneously eased, the increase in exports will be limited, and the price drop will narrow accordingly.

The mid-term trend is dominated by multiple supply and demand games: OPEC+ may replicate the market intervention actions of 2022 by initiating production cuts to respond to the rapid decline in oil prices; at the same time, the indirect demand for the reconstruction of energy facilities in Ukraine and the growth of energy consumption driven by global economic recovery will partially offset the impact of increased supply, making it highly probable that oil prices will enter a phase of volatile adjustment. In terms of natural gas, Europe has reduced its dependence on Russia through diversification strategies, leading to a significant short-term price drop, while in the medium term, prices will fluctuate with inventory levels and winter demand changes.

II. Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): Short-term pressure from risk aversion retreat, monetary environment determines long-term.

Gold and silver face clear downward pressure in the short term. The alleviation of geopolitical risks has accelerated the withdrawal of safe-haven buying, combined with funds possibly shifting from bulk commodities to stocks and other risk assets, weakening the support for precious metal prices. Among them, gold is more directly affected by the weakened safe-haven attribute, resulting in greater downward pressure; silver, due to its industrial properties, may decline slightly less than gold.

The mid-term trend returns to the main line of monetary policy: If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rate cut expectations, the weakening of the dollar will provide support for precious metals, effectively suppressing the magnitude of declines. Furthermore, the long-term trend of global central banks continuously purchasing gold and the rigid demand for silver in fields like photovoltaics and new energy will ensure that neither will experience a deep correction, and they are more likely to maintain high-level fluctuations rather than retreating to pre-conflict levels.

III. Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Iron/Iron Ore, Nickel, Palladium): Supply and demand exert forces in both directions, with significant structural differentiation.

(1) Copper and Iron (Iron Ore): Demand-driven, moderately strong in the short to medium term.

Copper and iron ore are both on an upward trend in the short to medium term. The reconstruction of Ukraine will require over $500 billion in investment, which will continuously drive demand for copper and steel, indirectly boosting upstream iron ore consumption; coupled with the global economic recovery, the demand for copper from the new energy industry and the demand for steel from infrastructure will resonate, making the increase in demand the dominant force. Although iron ore supply will slightly increase as Ukraine's production capacity recovers, the demand pull is stronger, making it easier for prices to rise and harder to fall.

(2) Aluminum, Nickel, Palladium: Supply release puts short-term pressure, while demand hedges stabilize in the medium term.

Aluminum, nickel, and palladium face significant short-term price pressure. If Russian aluminum (accounting for 6% of global supply), nickel (20% of high-purity nickel), and palladium (40%) exports resume circulation, it will alleviate previous supply shortage concerns and directly suppress short-term prices. However, in the medium term, attention should be paid to the hedging effect of demand: the recovery of demand in major consuming countries like China, coupled with the irreplaceable nature of palladium in automotive exhaust catalysis, will effectively limit the downward space for prices, overall presenting a "short-term pressure, medium-term stabilization" trend.

IV. Agricultural Inputs and Products (Potash, Wheat, Corn, Sunflower Seed Oil): Supply eases, prices gradually decline.

Potash prices are rapidly declining in the short term. As the world's third-largest potash exporter, if sanctions ease after the ceasefire, Russia's share of global exports (20%) will gradually recover, combined with the reopening of Black Sea transport routes, international potash prices will clearly fall; in the medium term, due to the rigid nature of agricultural demand and the rapid pace of global inventory rebuilding, prices will stabilize after sharp declines.

Wheat, corn, and sunflower seed oil prices have significantly dropped in the short term. After the ports in Odessa and other areas of Ukraine resume operations, their grain export capacity as the "breadbasket of Europe" will be rapidly released, alleviating global supply tightness, combined with speculative funds in the futures market exiting, further accelerating price declines. In the medium term, whether prices return to pre-conflict equilibrium levels will depend on the progress of supply chain restoration (e.g., port facilities, transportation fleet recovery) and changes in global planting areas.