#美伊战争 The strait is still lively, far from extinguishing. The short-term optimism is probably nearing its end.
Regarding the Middle East situation, various statements, blockades, and negotiation news bombard us daily, but it can actually be well organized. Yesterday's messages boil down to two main points. The first is the US-Iran negotiations. The second is the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The second serves the first, as Iran has consistently insisted on a full ceasefire, pressuring the US to act against Israel; otherwise, it would deem the US-Israel relationship as violating the ceasefire agreement, making further talks impossible. This has allowed Israel to exploit the situation for quite some time, stubbornly fighting for an extra week before stopping. Now that it has finally calmed down, the second round of negotiations is likely not far off.
Both sides have long abandoned the fantasy of a comprehensive peace agreement; all current actions are aimed at paving the way for a temporary agreement. Neither side wants to engage in a full-scale war nor compromise easily, relying instead on mutual pressure, releasing information, and vying for the initiative at the negotiation table.
Speaking of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, it is not an isolated event; it is the foundation for continued talks between the US and Iran: if both parties do not even adhere to the ceasefire agreement and continue to exchange fire, no one would believe that any reliable agreements could be reached subsequently, causing the US-Iran negotiations to lose the basis for advancement.
With only 5 days left until the ceasefire agreement ends, the likelihood of advancing negotiations in the short term is still relatively high. However, it is expected that only a temporary agreement will be signed, with mutual compromises in some minor areas. After all, neither side wants to bear the cost of a full-scale war; the US does not want to get entangled in the Middle Eastern battlefield, and Iran is also unwilling to face direct military confrontation.
Do not believe the nonsense that Trump says, that Iran will agree to everything. Core differences such as nuclear issues and control over the Strait of Hormuz cannot be bridged at all; comprehensive peace is utterly impossible, and ultimately only a temporary agreement will be reached, with continued tugging afterward.
The fighting has not penetrated deeply; the US military, especially the Israeli military, still believes they can fight, having the capability to strike the other side dead at any time, and there are still strategic goals yet to be achieved, only weighing the gains against the costs. Iran also believes it holds leverage against the other side; although I cannot defeat you, you both cannot deal with me either. Relying on blockading the strait and asymmetric warfare, I can still make you hurt.
In this situation, both sides feel capable, which means no one is willing to compromise, and naturally, no agreement can be reached.
Regarding the Middle East situation, various statements, blockades, and negotiation news bombard us daily, but it can actually be well organized. Yesterday's messages boil down to two main points. The first is the US-Iran negotiations. The second is the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The second serves the first, as Iran has consistently insisted on a full ceasefire, pressuring the US to act against Israel; otherwise, it would deem the US-Israel relationship as violating the ceasefire agreement, making further talks impossible. This has allowed Israel to exploit the situation for quite some time, stubbornly fighting for an extra week before stopping. Now that it has finally calmed down, the second round of negotiations is likely not far off.
Both sides have long abandoned the fantasy of a comprehensive peace agreement; all current actions are aimed at paving the way for a temporary agreement. Neither side wants to engage in a full-scale war nor compromise easily, relying instead on mutual pressure, releasing information, and vying for the initiative at the negotiation table.
Speaking of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, it is not an isolated event; it is the foundation for continued talks between the US and Iran: if both parties do not even adhere to the ceasefire agreement and continue to exchange fire, no one would believe that any reliable agreements could be reached subsequently, causing the US-Iran negotiations to lose the basis for advancement.
With only 5 days left until the ceasefire agreement ends, the likelihood of advancing negotiations in the short term is still relatively high. However, it is expected that only a temporary agreement will be signed, with mutual compromises in some minor areas. After all, neither side wants to bear the cost of a full-scale war; the US does not want to get entangled in the Middle Eastern battlefield, and Iran is also unwilling to face direct military confrontation.
Do not believe the nonsense that Trump says, that Iran will agree to everything. Core differences such as nuclear issues and control over the Strait of Hormuz cannot be bridged at all; comprehensive peace is utterly impossible, and ultimately only a temporary agreement will be reached, with continued tugging afterward.
The fighting has not penetrated deeply; the US military, especially the Israeli military, still believes they can fight, having the capability to strike the other side dead at any time, and there are still strategic goals yet to be achieved, only weighing the gains against the costs. Iran also believes it holds leverage against the other side; although I cannot defeat you, you both cannot deal with me either. Relying on blockading the strait and asymmetric warfare, I can still make you hurt.
In this situation, both sides feel capable, which means no one is willing to compromise, and naturally, no agreement can be reached.