Good morning to all the brothers and sisters in the circle, I am Kai Ge. Today is April 17th, Friday.

The market has been unusually tense these past few days, with both bulls and bears pulling frantically at relatively high levels. Many friends see the price not dropping and start to panic, wondering if they are about to miss out again?

Today, Kai Ge will take everyone to look beyond the surface to see the essence: the short selling pressure has not materially exploded, but the bulls' charge has almost come to a halt! Today's intraday game is extremely critical, everyone should pay close attention to the following deductions.

📉 Trend Analysis: The 'false prosperity' supported by negative rates, a big drop is still ahead!

When trading, it is essential to understand emotions and funds. Why has the market recently been sluggish? You can observe the funding rates, which are currently showing a high negative value. This means that the higher the price pushes up, the more retail investors enter short at high positions, making it difficult for the market to execute a smooth crash in the short term to 'kill the shorts.'

But from the perspective of the daily level, we are still in a prolonged two-month deep channel flag adjustment. In terms of medium to long-term trend views, Kai absolutely does not change: the overall direction still looks bearish! In the past, we have only completed a two-phase decline, and we are currently in the second phase of adjustment, patiently waiting for the third phase of decline to test or even break through the previous low, completing the ultimate turnover of chips, which is the true bottom.

⚔️ Intraday Market Analysis: Bulls show fatigue, closely monitor the two major battlefields above and below

Let's switch back to the 1-hour level to see the main force's cards. Currently, although it maintains a bullish arrangement, the momentum is visibly weakening.

Today, everyone just needs to keep a close eye on these two core points:

🎯 Upper Lifeline: 76000

This is the current absolute strong resistance zone. Yesterday the market touched the 76000 mark and then fell back after forming a star line. If the bullish demand continues to weaken and 76000 cannot be broken with volume, it may directly turn short from the current high position, starting a new round of decline. However, if the main force forcibly sweeps the market and breaks through 76000, it is highly likely to touch the upper track of the channel at the integer mark of 80000 for the ultimate liquidation of shorts.

🎯 Lower Defense Line: 73500

Last night's market dipped down, breaking through the previous low of 73500 and quickly recovering, indicating that there is strong buying support here in the short term. But everyone should pay attention to the details: the subsequent rebound did not break the previous high, and the highs are continuously moving lower, indicating that the buying demand is gradually being consumed.

💡 Kai's operation suggestion: give up short longs, patiently lay low for medium to long shorts!

In this period full of uncertainty, frequently trading short-term is very likely to result in mutual liquidation. Our focus must be on the layout of medium to long-term short positions.

Kai has prepared two stable entry plans for everyone:

• Script One (False Breakout High): If the main force goes crazy and forcibly breaks through 76000, do not chase long! Be patient and wait for it to reach the upper channel (around 80000), where you can gradually layout long-term short positions.

• Script Two (Right Side Breakout Short): If the price does not break 76000, but instead breaks down through the key support of 73500, it indicates that the bulls have completely failed. Remember, don't rush after breaking down; wait for a rebound to confirm resistance, and decisively enter short on the right side, with the defense point set directly at the previous high.

(Disclaimer: The above content is for Kai's personal market analysis only, for reference and discussion, and does not constitute any specific investment advice. One day in the coin circle is like a year in the human world, please strictly manage stop losses when trading!)$BTC $ETH