As the second quarter of 2026 began, financial advisor Benjamin Cowen raised concerns about the sharp decline of Bitcoin. He pointed out that the price had dropped nearly 50% from the historic peak of $126,000 in October to around $60,000.
Although Bitcoin later recovered to above $70,000, trading at $74,409.33 at the time of writing, Cowen warned that concerns remain. Commenting on this issue, Cowen noted:
This is merely a partial reset of the late-cycle environment, characterized by limited liquidity, weak participation, and narrow market breadth.
The analyst notes that market demand is weak and liquidity is heavy. However, he also believes that there is still room for sideways movements rather than an immediate collapse. Observing market dynamics, Cowen advised investors to focus on 'capital preservation with selectively deployed strategies.'
Is the altcoin season approaching?
Cowen further suggests that the cash flow is focusing on Bitcoin rather than altcoins in the current market dynamics. Needless to say, this raises the question: If Bitcoin is declining, are altcoins rising? But the data on Bitcoin dominance, according to TradingView, is at 59.69%, confirming that Bitcoin remains dominant.
The altcoin index from CoinMarketCap further reinforces this assessment.
Source: CoinMarketCap
However, this is not enough, as Cowen emphasizes that genuine interest, social participation, and on-chain data cooling down still indicate tension in the market.
Therefore, Cowen summed it up best by noting that:
The current environment is most distinctly characterized by a time-based capitulation, where excesses are cleared through prolonged accumulation processes and intermittent recoveries, rather than a single swift liquidation phase.
Are the on-chain indicators reflecting a similar sentiment?
Confirming this fear in Q2 2026, a recent report from CryptoQuant also provided similar insights. The report highlights that the price of Bitcoin (at the time of the report) had returned to its highest level since February 4, 2026.
However, a deeper look shows that this price surge is only strong in appearance. In reality, BTC is at the average buying price of short-term traders, which is acting as a 'strong resistance level of the bear market.'
Based on past data, the report emphasizes that in such scenarios, prices often strive to go higher but are frequently rejected. Additionally, the Bitcoin exchange inflow chart recorded approximately 11,000 Bitcoins transferred to exchanges, further indicating that traders are preparing to sell.
Source: CryptoQuant
In fact, profit-taking activity is also minimal, around 500 million USD per day compared to 1 billion USD in previous bearish cycles.
Source: CryptoQuant
Even Tom Lee from BitMine warned of a short-term sell-off before the market truly breaks out.
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