Good morning to all the brothers and sisters in the circle, I am Kai Ge. Today is April 16, Thursday.
Recently, in this market trend, Bitcoin has been consolidating in this adjustment range for two months, forming a deep channel flag adjustment. Yesterday, the market made another effort to touch the key resistance of 76000, and many people thought it couldn't rise anymore and that a crash was imminent. However, today, Kai Ge wants to remind everyone: the short-term bulls may not have peaked yet, be careful of the main force forcibly pushing the price up to trigger short positions!
Why do I say this? How should we defend during the day? Kai Ge will take you through the market to understand the true intentions of the main funds.
📉 Market anomaly: funding rates are extremely negative, and the more retail investors short, the more the main force pushes up!
When trading, you cannot just look at the K-line; you must also consider sentiment and capital distribution. Why has the big market not dropped recently, but instead continued to rise? Everyone can understand by looking at the recent funding rates.
Currently, the funding rate shows an extremely negative value, which means what? It means that the higher the price is pushed up, the more retail investors will add to their short positions at high levels! The market has accumulated a massive amount of high-leverage short positions, which is simply a feast for the main force. Before the shorts are completely liquidated, it is extremely difficult for the market to experience a satisfying plunge in the short term.
A few days ago, we saw a bearish K-line drop down, followed by a massive bullish candlestick that directly pushed the price to fluctuate around 76000. This is textbook 'short squeeze baiting.'
⚔️ Intraday market analysis: fixate on the 76000 life-and-death line, the extreme may touch the 80000 mark!
Since the short-term main force is watching the short liquidation line, how should we respond intraday?
🎯 Core watershed: 76000
This is currently the most critical level of resistance. The direction of the intraday market completely depends on whether this position can be effectively broken.
• If 76000 breaks strongly: the market is highly likely to test the upper boundary of the channel. At this point, the next node we need to pay attention to is the 80000 round number! 80000 is a psychological level that the entire market is watching, and the main force will likely push the price here to completely complete the ultimate liquidation of shorts.
• Kai Ge's operational trump card: I have personally established a short position at around 74000. If the market really touches around 80000, I will consider adding to my position there. However, I absolutely do not recommend everyone to mindlessly chase long positions at this level.
💎 Ethereum (ETH) long-term password: Where is the bottom line between life and death?
After talking about Bitcoin, let's mention Ethereum. The structure of Ethereum is also a flag-like adjustment, but the trend is weaker.
Many friends ask what price can Ethereum spot be bought at. Kai Ge puts it this way: looking at the adjustment cycles over the past few years, Ethereum's real 'lifeline' is in the range of 2100 to 2200! Only when the price breaks below this line and tests the lower points ahead is it a great opportunity to bottom fish. Currently, the price is high, and the value of participating in spot is extremely low; the strategy remains to short at highs.
💡 Kai Ge's summary
In the short term, there is great uncertainty in the market, and the main force is playing a psychological war of 'killing shorts.'
But everyone remember Kai Ge's words: no matter how much short squeezing happens in the short term, the view of a new round of major declines in the medium to long term will not change! This bear market must complete the third phase of decline, break previous lows, and complete a bloody turnover of chips before the real bottom arrives.
Today's intraday strategy: those with short positions should keep enough bullets for averaging down to cope with extreme spikes; those without positions should patiently observe the breaking situation of 76000, beware of short squeeze risks, and watch more and act less!$BTC