Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience amid the war between the United States and Iran, rising by more than 12% since February 28. As uncertainty continues in global markets, one question still dominates investors' sentiments: has Bitcoin really found its bottom, or is further decline still on the horizon?
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Benjamin Coin, the CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, shared his opinion on the direction the market may take next.
When will Bitcoin hit the bottom?
Coin explained that the timing of the Bitcoin cycle has remained remarkably consistent. He noted that compared to the previous two cycles, Bitcoin peaked within one week of the peaks of those previous cycles.
Based on this pattern, Coin expects the bottom to occur about a year after the peak.
Coin told BeInCrypto: "The base case should simply be that it will drop when the other two cycles reach the bottom, which is about a year after the highest probability scenario is October 2026."
He acknowledged that there is a scenario where Bitcoin could hit the bottom around May. But for that to happen, there needs to be a massive capitulation event much less than what typically results from historical halvings.
As long as Bitcoin's returns so far remain within the standard deviation range of previous halving years, Coin sees no reason to deviate from the October thesis.
"And if you look at the return on investment for Bitcoin since the beginning of the year in 2026 and compare it to the average of previous mid-cycle years, you add a standard deviation to that average. As long as we’re within this band, it’s hard to assume we’ll leave the band, especially at this early stage of the halving year," he clarified.
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The forecasts align with the opinions of other market analysts. João Weidson, CEO of Alphafractal, noted that the peak of the Bitcoin cycle occurred 534 days after the April 2024 halving, which is the shortest cycle peak compared to previous ones.
Based on this retracement pattern across cycles, his analysis suggests that the market bottom could appear approximately 912 to 922 days after the halving, indicating a timeframe in late September or early October 2026.
CryptoQuant's estimates generally support this view, as models suggest a potential bottom between June and December 2026, with September to November being the most likely windows.
Why has this cycle outperformed apathy, not euphoria
One of Coin's main observations is that although the peak of Bitcoin in the current cycle aligns with previous timelines, it has emerged under completely different conditions.
He noted that in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked amid widespread euphoria in the retail sector. This, in turn, led to the rotation of altcoins after reaching the peak.
This time, social interest in cryptocurrencies has been trending down since 2021. Bitcoin has led the apathy, and as a result, the usual altcoin rotation has not occurred.
"This is a cycle where Bitcoin has outperformed apathy rather than euphoria, and the only other time apathy outperformed was actually in 2019. When you outperform apathy, you don't get the same rotation," he said.
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Overall, Coin has maintained his view that the four-year cycle is still intact. Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,831, which is over 40% lower than its all-time high of nearly $126,000 in October 2025. If Coin's analysis continues, there may be additional pullbacks before the cycle reaches its lowest point.