Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience amidst the war between the United States and Iran, rising over 12% since February 28th. In the midst of global market uncertainty, investors wonder: has Bitcoin already found its bottom or is there more downward pressure ahead?
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, shared his insights on where the markets might head next.
When will Bitcoin hit its bottom?
Cowen explained that the Bitcoin cycle has been exceptionally consistent. He noted that compared to the two previous cycles, Bitcoin reached its peak within a week of when the previous cycles peaked.
Based on this pattern, Cowen estimates that the bottom will come about a year after the peak.
“The basic assumption is that the bottom is reached as it was in the two previous cycles, which is about a year after the peak. The most likely time frame is October 2026,” Cowen stated to BeInCrypto.
He pointed out that there is also a possibility that the bottom could be reached as early as May. If that happens, however, there would need to be a significant wave of selling in the market that would go well below the historical events of election cycle years.
As long as Bitcoin's return for this year remains within the yield fluctuations of previous election years, according to Cowen, there is no reason to change the October prediction.
“When looking at Bitcoin's return for 2026 and comparing it to the average of previous election years with normal deviations, we stay within this range. It is difficult to assume that we deviate from this, especially at such an early stage of the election year,” he explained.
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This view also corresponds with the assessments of other market analysts. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, noted that Bitcoin's cycle peak was seen 534 days after the April 2024 halving, making it the shortest cycle peak compared to previous cycles.
Based on this decreasing cycle pattern, his analysis suggests that the bottom could occur about 912–922 days after the halving, which is around the time frame of late September to October 2026.
CryptoQuant's estimates generally support this view: models suggest that the potential bottom is likely to occur between June and December 2026, with the most probable months being September to November.
Why did the peak of this cycle come from indifference, not euphoria?
One of Cowen's key observations is that even though Bitcoin's current cycle peak coincides with previous ones, the prevailing conditions were very different.
He noted that in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin's peak was born during a phase of widespread private investor euphoria. This, in turn, led to a circulation of altcoins after Bitcoin's peak.
Since 2021, societal interest in crypto has been declining. Bitcoin peaked during a phase of indifference, and there was no typical circulation of altcoins.
“In this cycle, Bitcoin's peak was born from indifference, not euphoria. The last time this happened was in 2019. When a peak comes from indifference, the circulation of altcoins does not occur in the same way,” he mentioned.
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Overall, Cowen maintains his view that the four-year cycle is still in effect. The price of Bitcoin is currently $73,831, which is over 40% below the all-time high of October 2025, which was close to $126,000. If Cowen's analysis holds true, the decline may continue before the cycle finds its bottom.