🔴 TRUMP DECLARES WAR IS ABOUT TO END, IRAN THREATENS TO BLOCKADE TRADE

📌 Key event

US President Donald Trump declared that the conflict with Iran is 'very close' to ending, while Tehran threatens to shut down all trade in the Red Sea and the Gulf.

🔗 Macroeconomic impact chain

Trump's conciliatory statement → reduces concerns about direct military confrontation between the US and Iran → oil prices decrease pressure to rise → reduces energy inflation risk → supports risk market sentiment. However, Iran's blockade threat → disrupts global maritime supply chains → increases transportation costs, delays delivery → re-inflation of cost-push.

📊 Asset impacted

Positive:

• SPX

• QQQ

• USD

Negative:

• Crude oil (WTI, Brent)

• Shipping stocks

• Copper (due to concerns about industrial disruption)

Neutral:

• Gold

• BTC

🔮 Market scenarios

Scenario 1 (55%): Trump’s statements are reinforced by diplomatic actions; the escalation stops, and Iran does not carry out its threats. This helps stabilize oil; the SPX gains strongly thanks to reduced geopolitical uncertainty, while gold and BTC lose their safe-haven role.

Scenario 2 (45%): Iran’s threat becomes reality or negotiations fail, with tensions reigniting sharply. Oil prices and shipping costs surge, the SPX sees a deep correction due to worries about inflation and growth, while gold and BTC rise on risk-averse sentiment.

🧠 Strategic outlook

The market is underpricing the risk of a prolonged supply-chain disruption originating from the Red Sea; even if the war does not occur, Iran’s trade threat could be a tool to exert long-term economic pressure, forcing the Fed to be more cautious.