Five weeks to determine life and death! The final battle of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation has begun, BTC's fate hangs by a thread
On April 13, the Senate reconvened, and the "2025 Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" entered its final window period. This is the most critical legislative sprint for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry in three years—life and death will be determined in the next five weeks; if not passed before August, it will be dead on arrival. If successfully implemented, it will transfer cryptocurrency regulatory authority, excluding stablecoins, from the SEC to the CFTC, completely ending the Biden administration's high-pressure regulation and bringing certainty to the industry; if it fails, U.S. cryptocurrency innovation may accelerate to regulatory-friendly regions like Singapore and Abu Dhabi.
The core controversy of the bill focuses on stablecoin yields: the banking sector demands a ban on platforms offering stablecoin rewards equivalent to deposit interest to prevent deposit outflow; the cryptocurrency industry vehemently criticizes this as stifling innovation and reinforcing bank monopolies. On April 8, the White House suddenly sided with the cryptocurrency industry, with Treasury Secretary Yellen expressing support, and the Economic Advisory Council's report showed that banning stablecoin yields only contributes 0.02% to bank loan promotion, with 76% of benefits flowing to large banks, while community banks only gain 0.026%. Currently, a compromise solution is being suggested: allowing rewards for payment activities while restricting passive income from balances.
The market has reacted strongly: Bitcoin has soared from $70,000 after Trump's election to a historical high of $126,000, but since February 2026, with the bill stalled, it has continuously fallen below the $80,000 and $70,000 thresholds, briefly touching $60,000, hitting a 16-month low, with over $2 billion in liquidations across the network. Polymarket predicts an 82% probability that BTC will fall below $65,000 within the year, and the probability of dipping to $55,000 has risen to 60%.
"Crypto Queen" Lummis has tweeted warnings for five consecutive days: "This is the last chance to pass CLARITY before 2030; we cannot gamble with America's financial future." Notably, Trump has not personally engaged like he did with the promotion of the "GENIUS Act," and his approval rating has dropped to a new low of 36%, adding uncertainty to the legislative outlook.
The two drafts from the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee need to be merged first, and then coordinated with the House version, making the process cumbersome. If there is no breakthrough before the Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill will be caught in the midterm election whirlpool, with a bleak outlook.
Do you think the CLARITY Act can ultimately be passed? Will it be the savior of BTC or the last straw that breaks the camel's back?
$币安人生
$ZAMA
On April 13, the Senate reconvened, and the "2025 Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" entered its final window period. This is the most critical legislative sprint for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry in three years—life and death will be determined in the next five weeks; if not passed before August, it will be dead on arrival. If successfully implemented, it will transfer cryptocurrency regulatory authority, excluding stablecoins, from the SEC to the CFTC, completely ending the Biden administration's high-pressure regulation and bringing certainty to the industry; if it fails, U.S. cryptocurrency innovation may accelerate to regulatory-friendly regions like Singapore and Abu Dhabi.
The core controversy of the bill focuses on stablecoin yields: the banking sector demands a ban on platforms offering stablecoin rewards equivalent to deposit interest to prevent deposit outflow; the cryptocurrency industry vehemently criticizes this as stifling innovation and reinforcing bank monopolies. On April 8, the White House suddenly sided with the cryptocurrency industry, with Treasury Secretary Yellen expressing support, and the Economic Advisory Council's report showed that banning stablecoin yields only contributes 0.02% to bank loan promotion, with 76% of benefits flowing to large banks, while community banks only gain 0.026%. Currently, a compromise solution is being suggested: allowing rewards for payment activities while restricting passive income from balances.
The market has reacted strongly: Bitcoin has soared from $70,000 after Trump's election to a historical high of $126,000, but since February 2026, with the bill stalled, it has continuously fallen below the $80,000 and $70,000 thresholds, briefly touching $60,000, hitting a 16-month low, with over $2 billion in liquidations across the network. Polymarket predicts an 82% probability that BTC will fall below $65,000 within the year, and the probability of dipping to $55,000 has risen to 60%.
"Crypto Queen" Lummis has tweeted warnings for five consecutive days: "This is the last chance to pass CLARITY before 2030; we cannot gamble with America's financial future." Notably, Trump has not personally engaged like he did with the promotion of the "GENIUS Act," and his approval rating has dropped to a new low of 36%, adding uncertainty to the legislative outlook.
The two drafts from the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee need to be merged first, and then coordinated with the House version, making the process cumbersome. If there is no breakthrough before the Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill will be caught in the midterm election whirlpool, with a bleak outlook.
Do you think the CLARITY Act can ultimately be passed? Will it be the savior of BTC or the last straw that breaks the camel's back?
$币安人生
$ZAMA
