US-Iran negotiations break down + bond market crashes! Is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year completely suspended?
The US-Iran talks ended directly without results, combined with the US March inflation data soaring, the global bond market experienced a complete crash, and the expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates completely reversed. The market is fully pricing in "high rates lasting longer," and the macro pressures in the cryptocurrency market continue to escalate!
The US Treasury market, with a scale of up to $31 trillion, was the first to experience turbulence, as soaring energy costs exacerbated inflation pressures, becoming the core contradiction in the global financial market. The US March CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 2022, directly pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.3%; after the breakdown of talks, the US ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the yield further climbed to 4.35%. The bond markets in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand fell significantly in sync, leading to a collective adjustment in the global bond market.
Meanwhile, the US labor market remains robust, with March non-farm payrolls recording the largest phase increase, and the unemployment rate stabilizing at a low level. The dual data of persistently high inflation + a steady job market has completely weakened the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Many top asset management institutions have warned that geopolitical conflicts are causing supply-side inflation shocks, putting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in a dilemma.
Market expectations have undergone a stunning reversal. Previously, traders generally bet that the Federal Reserve would implement two interest rate cuts this year, but now they have directly postponed the first interest rate cut to mid-2027. Most institutions choose to wait and see, unwilling to make significant adjustments to asset allocation before the inflation trend becomes clear.
Currently, the uncertainty in the US-Iran situation has not been eliminated, and the trends in oil prices and inflation remain elusive, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window continuously closed. Do you think there is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year? How should the cryptocurrency market respond to geopolitical turmoil? Come to the comments section and share your thoughts!
$币安人生
$GIGGLE
$PROM
#加密市场回调
#美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡
#美国3月CPI大幅上升
The US-Iran talks ended directly without results, combined with the US March inflation data soaring, the global bond market experienced a complete crash, and the expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates completely reversed. The market is fully pricing in "high rates lasting longer," and the macro pressures in the cryptocurrency market continue to escalate!
The US Treasury market, with a scale of up to $31 trillion, was the first to experience turbulence, as soaring energy costs exacerbated inflation pressures, becoming the core contradiction in the global financial market. The US March CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 2022, directly pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.3%; after the breakdown of talks, the US ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the yield further climbed to 4.35%. The bond markets in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand fell significantly in sync, leading to a collective adjustment in the global bond market.
Meanwhile, the US labor market remains robust, with March non-farm payrolls recording the largest phase increase, and the unemployment rate stabilizing at a low level. The dual data of persistently high inflation + a steady job market has completely weakened the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Many top asset management institutions have warned that geopolitical conflicts are causing supply-side inflation shocks, putting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in a dilemma.
Market expectations have undergone a stunning reversal. Previously, traders generally bet that the Federal Reserve would implement two interest rate cuts this year, but now they have directly postponed the first interest rate cut to mid-2027. Most institutions choose to wait and see, unwilling to make significant adjustments to asset allocation before the inflation trend becomes clear.
Currently, the uncertainty in the US-Iran situation has not been eliminated, and the trends in oil prices and inflation remain elusive, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window continuously closed. Do you think there is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year? How should the cryptocurrency market respond to geopolitical turmoil? Come to the comments section and share your thoughts!
$币安人生
$GIGGLE
$PROM
#加密市场回调
#美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡
#美国3月CPI大幅上升
