📉 $BTC（2025-10-18 07:12）｜Long and Short Trend Index: 33 / 100（Weak Bearish）
BTC is currently reported at approximately 106,815 USD, continuing to fluctuate downward over the past 24 hours, with significant resistance to short-term rebound momentum. Although some support has emerged around 106,000 USD, the height of the rebound is limited, and the overall situation remains bearish. If BTC falls below 105,800 USD, it may continue to explore the 103,500~104,000 USD range; if it can return above 107,800 USD, a short-term corrective rebound is expected.
🔹 Multi-Cycle K-Line Trend Judgment:
15-Minute Chart: MA7 and MA25 are intertwined, showing a weak oscillating structure in the short term; MACD golden cross has weakened the red bars; RSI ~50.4, rebound momentum is weakening.
1-Hour Chart: The moving average system remains in a bearish arrangement, with MA7 and MA25 continuing to decline; MACD golden cross has just formed but lacks strength, red bars have limited expansion; RSI ~47.3, momentum is neutral to weak.
4-Hour Chart: K-line operates below MA7, with MA25 and MA99 showing significant bearish divergence; MACD green bars have slowed down, indicating potential short-term repair space; RSI ~35.9, close to the oversold area.
Daily Chart: MA7 crosses below MA25, forming a bearish arrangement; MACD death cross has expanded; RSI ~35.5, maintaining a weak state.
Weekly Chart: The moving average system still maintains a long-term upward trend, but MACD red bars are quickly shortening; RSI ~48.6, showing signs of weakening in the mid to long-term trend.
📊 Technical Indicator Analysis:
MACD: Weak golden crosses appear on the 15m and 1H charts, indicating a potential short-term repair; however, the 4H and daily charts still maintain death crosses, with the main trend remaining bearish.
RSI: RSI across various cycles is distributed in the 35~50 range, showing slight signs of short-term overselling, but no obvious bottom divergence has formed yet.
Moving Average System: Short-term moving averages (MA7, MA25) continue to decline, while the mid-term trend line (MA99) poses strong pressure around the 110,000 area, limiting rebound height.
Trading Volume: After a volume increase in the decline, rebound trading volume has significantly shrunk, indicating insufficient buying confidence.
🌐 Macroeconomic News (Last 48 Hours):
1. 【U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Again】The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 4.82%, and the U.S. dollar index has risen to 105.6, putting pressure on global risk appetite.
2. 【ETF Outflows Continue】BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows for the fourth consecutive day, totaling approximately 560 million USD, as institutional funds' risk-averse sentiment intensifies.
BTC is currently reported at approximately 106,815 USD, continuing to fluctuate downward over the past 24 hours, with significant resistance to short-term rebound momentum. Although some support has emerged around 106,000 USD, the height of the rebound is limited, and the overall situation remains bearish. If BTC falls below 105,800 USD, it may continue to explore the 103,500~104,000 USD range; if it can return above 107,800 USD, a short-term corrective rebound is expected.
🔹 Multi-Cycle K-Line Trend Judgment:
15-Minute Chart: MA7 and MA25 are intertwined, showing a weak oscillating structure in the short term; MACD golden cross has weakened the red bars; RSI ~50.4, rebound momentum is weakening.
1-Hour Chart: The moving average system remains in a bearish arrangement, with MA7 and MA25 continuing to decline; MACD golden cross has just formed but lacks strength, red bars have limited expansion; RSI ~47.3, momentum is neutral to weak.
4-Hour Chart: K-line operates below MA7, with MA25 and MA99 showing significant bearish divergence; MACD green bars have slowed down, indicating potential short-term repair space; RSI ~35.9, close to the oversold area.
Daily Chart: MA7 crosses below MA25, forming a bearish arrangement; MACD death cross has expanded; RSI ~35.5, maintaining a weak state.
Weekly Chart: The moving average system still maintains a long-term upward trend, but MACD red bars are quickly shortening; RSI ~48.6, showing signs of weakening in the mid to long-term trend.
📊 Technical Indicator Analysis:
MACD: Weak golden crosses appear on the 15m and 1H charts, indicating a potential short-term repair; however, the 4H and daily charts still maintain death crosses, with the main trend remaining bearish.
RSI: RSI across various cycles is distributed in the 35~50 range, showing slight signs of short-term overselling, but no obvious bottom divergence has formed yet.
Moving Average System: Short-term moving averages (MA7, MA25) continue to decline, while the mid-term trend line (MA99) poses strong pressure around the 110,000 area, limiting rebound height.
Trading Volume: After a volume increase in the decline, rebound trading volume has significantly shrunk, indicating insufficient buying confidence.
🌐 Macroeconomic News (Last 48 Hours):
1. 【U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Again】The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 4.82%, and the U.S. dollar index has risen to 105.6, putting pressure on global risk appetite.
2. 【ETF Outflows Continue】BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows for the fourth consecutive day, totaling approximately 560 million USD, as institutional funds' risk-averse sentiment intensifies.