Hello to all my fans, I am Kai. Today is April 10th, Friday.
The market has been fluctuating around 72000 for the past couple of days, and many friends are asking me: Kai, is this rebound going to break through the sky? Is the bull market going to start early?
Kai's answer is still clear: Don't be misled by short-term pulse-like rises. The gears of the big trend continue to turn according to the logic of the bears.
🏛️ Big cycle analysis: The 'ultimate game' of time and indicators
We need to determine whether the trend has reversed; we cannot only look at emotions, we must look at the confirmation of indicators.
1. Continuation of the death cross of the Vegas channel:
From the daily level, the current Vegas channel still maintains a very standard bearish arrangement. The continuation state after the formation of the death cross is very stable. Looking back at history, a real bull-bear transition must see the moving averages forming a golden cross, and we are still far from that position.
2. Time cycle deduction:
Referring to the patterns of past bear markets, a round of deep adjustment usually takes about a year (approximately 365 days). If we start counting from the peak last October, this adjustment should last at least until October to November this year. This means we might still have 5 to 6 months of fluctuating downward adjustment period. The current rise, in Kai Ge's view, is just a 'healthy adjustment' during a major decline, which is called a rebound, not a reversal.
⚔️ Daily market deduction: high position inducement trap, patiently waiting for the sniping signal
Returning to the current short-term game, the market has reached a very delicate point:
• Key resistance area: 74000 - 76000
This range is not only a key resistance at the daily level but also the place where the main force can most easily create 'false breakthroughs' to induce buying. Many people in the market are watching that steep downward trend line, and the main force may pull out a bullish line that breaks through the trend line, leading everyone to mistakenly believe that dawn has arrived, only to turn around and fall into a deep pit.
• Do not chase high prices at this time:
The current price is at a relative high for the day. Even if the market makes a new high (for example, a false breakthrough at 74000), Kai Ge does not recommend participating in this high-risk short-term long position. The risk-reward ratio is extremely poor, and it is always facing the violent return of the bearish trend.
• Core strategy: layout trend short positions
Our current focus is not to scramble for the remnants of the rebound, but to quietly wait for the right-side signals to appear. Once there is momentum exhaustion or a false breakthrough pullback in the 74000-76000 range, that will be the best hunting moment for us to lay out medium to long-term short positions.
💡 Kai Ge's message
In trading, the hardest part is not the operation, but the waiting.
The current market situation is like the fog before dawn, with the main force constantly testing the patience of retail investors. Everyone should keep a long-term perspective and not let the daily fluctuations of a few hundred points upset their mindset. As long as the key level of 76000 is not firmly established with volume and support conversion, the sword of Damocles for bears will always hang above.
Keep your hands steady and watch the show. Wait for the trend signals to be clear, and then Kai Ge will lead everyone to fire decisively!
(Disclaimer: The above content is only Kai Ge's personal opinion and does not constitute any specific investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is required when entering the market, please be sure to strictly set stop losses!)$BTC $ETH