Good morning to all the brothers and sisters in the circle, I am Brother Kai. Today is April 9th, Thursday.
The market has indeed been quite lively these past couple of days, especially the surge in the early morning, which likely gave many the illusion of a 'bull return'. But Brother Kai still wants to timely step in like yesterday and help everyone out: don't be blinded by the surface rise; the more it is like this, the more calmly you should see the structure!
In today's article, Brother Kai will break down the current 'false breakout' signal and our upcoming core ambush points.
📉 Trend Analysis: The large cycle bearish structure has not changed, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
The biggest fear in trading is being disturbed by the 'noise' of short-term fluctuations. Kai Ge repeatedly emphasizes that we need to look at the big cycle pattern.
Is there any change in the large cycle structure? No! Even if the price has risen in the past few days, from the daily and 4-hour levels, the suppression of the entire bearish arrangement still follows like a shadow. The current rise essentially still belongs to the 'adjustment phase' after a big drop. Without real buying demand to support it, a rise purely stimulated by news is like a high-rise without a foundation; it will scatter as soon as the wind blows.
Especially since Bitcoin has not yet exited the cyclical structural reversal, do not fantasize that the trend has reversed at this position. We need to wait for the real bottom to solidify, rather than getting caught up in emotions halfway up the mountain.
⚔️ Daily market simulation: high sell and low buy is the way, beware of 'false signals'
Let's look at the technical details of the day; this is also a key point Kai Ge wants to remind everyone today:
1. Bitcoin: Double top meets resistance, best sniper position for long-term shorts
Yesterday, Bitcoin attempted to break through the previous high again, but as everyone saw—the breakout failed and quickly fell back. This is a very typical 'double top' signal. Since the price has been so weak at the key resistance level, our thinking is very clear: focus on short selling! At the current position, it is not only suitable for short-term shorts but also an excellent entry point for medium to long-term short positions.
2. Ethereum: Arc top 'false breakout' trap, don't chase!
Ethereum has created a 'breakout' illusion at the key neckline in the past two days. Everyone, look back at history; how many times has this arc bottom pretended to break through and then plummeted afterwards? This is still a typical false signal. Ethereum has not yet escaped the large-scale consolidation range, and the so-called 'breakthrough' seems more like a cover for the main force to sell off.
🎯 Kai Ge's operational advice:
• Absolutely do not chase high: Understanding what cannot be done is the first step to making a profit. Chasing long positions now is like putting your head in a waistband for the main force to take over.
• Gradually short: Continue to adopt a 'high sell' strategy, looking for signals of stagnation at resistance levels to gradually enter short positions.
• Oscillation thinking: Treat the current market as an oscillating trend until the structure is completely reversed, executing high sell and low buy, but with a focus on short selling during the day.
💡 Kai Ge's summary
Trading is not only a game of technology but also a psychological contest.
During this stage of 'false signals', Kai Ge hopes everyone can stay steady. Since the main force wants to put on a show, we will sit in the audience and wait for them to tire out and reveal their flaws before we strike accurately.
Remember: better to miss than to buy wrong. Protect the principal, so we can have bullets to fight a beautiful turnaround when real big opportunities arise!\u003cc-82/\u003e\u003cc-83/\u003e