Impact of Armed Conflicts on BTC Prices
Since the genesis block of Bitcoin in 2009, the asset has transitioned from being a marginal experiment to a geopolitical risk indicator.
Historically, it shows a pattern of initial decline due to panic at the beginning of each significant armed conflict, followed by a recovery driven by inflation and the search for financial alternatives.
Below is a brief look at the main conflicts that occurred in the last 4 years and their impact on the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine
(February 2022)
Immediate Impact: The price fell from ~$39,000 to $34,322 within hours due to risk aversion.
Repercussion: Within a few days, it rose to $44,000, driven by Russian and Ukrainian citizens using BTC.
Israel-Hamas War
(October 2023)
Immediate Impact: Slight drop of approximately 2%, fluctuating below $27,000.
Repercussion: The market recovered quickly. In the long term, this conflict reinforced the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" amid instability in the Middle East.
Iran-Israel Conflict
(April 2024 / Early 2025)
2024 Attack: BTC fell 8.4% on the day of the drone attacks but showed less volatility than in 2022 due to the influx of institutional capital via ETFs.
2025 Escalation: During the so-called "12-Day War", the price showed great resilience, rising from $108,000 to $119,000 (a 10% increase).
Israel-U.S.-Iran Conflict
(January 2026)
Impact: Caused massive liquidations of $358 million in the crypto market.
Repercussion: Although there were initial drops towards $63,000, the price quickly bounced back to $70,000, demonstrating that the market is already rapidly discounting these events.
Sources: Various
Since the genesis block of Bitcoin in 2009, the asset has transitioned from being a marginal experiment to a geopolitical risk indicator.
Historically, it shows a pattern of initial decline due to panic at the beginning of each significant armed conflict, followed by a recovery driven by inflation and the search for financial alternatives.
Below is a brief look at the main conflicts that occurred in the last 4 years and their impact on the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine
(February 2022)
Immediate Impact: The price fell from ~$39,000 to $34,322 within hours due to risk aversion.
Repercussion: Within a few days, it rose to $44,000, driven by Russian and Ukrainian citizens using BTC.
Israel-Hamas War
(October 2023)
Immediate Impact: Slight drop of approximately 2%, fluctuating below $27,000.
Repercussion: The market recovered quickly. In the long term, this conflict reinforced the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" amid instability in the Middle East.
Iran-Israel Conflict
(April 2024 / Early 2025)
2024 Attack: BTC fell 8.4% on the day of the drone attacks but showed less volatility than in 2022 due to the influx of institutional capital via ETFs.
2025 Escalation: During the so-called "12-Day War", the price showed great resilience, rising from $108,000 to $119,000 (a 10% increase).
Israel-U.S.-Iran Conflict
(January 2026)
Impact: Caused massive liquidations of $358 million in the crypto market.
Repercussion: Although there were initial drops towards $63,000, the price quickly bounced back to $70,000, demonstrating that the market is already rapidly discounting these events.
Sources: Various
