Who will be the ultimate winner, the US or Iran?
Let me state the conclusion first: Iran will achieve a pyrrhic victory.
Trump has declared bankruptcy six times in his life. I have studied his personality and found that he does not know when to cut his losses.
If he were at the gambling table and lost a few hundred dollars, he would not leave the table; instead, he would keep raising the stakes until he went bankrupt.
Currently, there are 2,500 troops on their way to the Middle East, and about 2,500 more departing from California, estimated to arrive in nearly a month. Along with the 82nd Airborne Division (18,000), and local US Army forces in the Middle East, if fully mobilized, it would approach 28,000 personnel. However, I estimate the actual mobilization will be between 10,000 to 15,000, as the available equipment from the US Navy can support a maximum of 16,000.
The current situation is very similar to three months ago, when the US was simultaneously deploying combat troops to the Middle East while also stating they wanted to negotiate. But the purpose of the negotiations was actually to buy time to prepare the military.
I estimate that the US military will likely use ground forces. The upcoming process will resemble the Vietnam War.
When the Vietnam War began, it was also a small-scale military operation, which ended up dragging on for 15 years.
Initially, the US used its Navy and Air Force to blockade Vietnam. After the Gulf of Tonkin incident, the US realized that the blockade was ineffective and began using small-scale landing forces for special operations, landing 3,500 troops in Da Nang.
Once the landing forces were deployed, there was no turning back. Because if they lost, they could not retreat, they had to send more soldiers for rescue, which led to a strategy of escalation, eventually turning into a full-scale war.
The entire process was: using air and naval superiority, non-contact warfare -- unable to eliminate the opponent -- small-scale Marine Corps -- escalation strategy -- full-scale war.
In the end, the situation fell into a stalemate of 'unable to win, unable to negotiate, unable to withdraw.'
Unable to win, unable to negotiate, unable to withdraw, isn't that exactly the situation with Iran now? The US cannot withdraw half-heartedly; once they withdraw, Iran will become a genuine hegemon in the Gulf. This would undermine the foundation of petrodollars.
I see this rhythm, the more I look at it, the more it resembles the early days of the US Vietnam War.
I speculate that once ground war begins, Iran will pay a heavy price for a hollow victory. $BNB
Let me state the conclusion first: Iran will achieve a pyrrhic victory.
Trump has declared bankruptcy six times in his life. I have studied his personality and found that he does not know when to cut his losses.
If he were at the gambling table and lost a few hundred dollars, he would not leave the table; instead, he would keep raising the stakes until he went bankrupt.
Currently, there are 2,500 troops on their way to the Middle East, and about 2,500 more departing from California, estimated to arrive in nearly a month. Along with the 82nd Airborne Division (18,000), and local US Army forces in the Middle East, if fully mobilized, it would approach 28,000 personnel. However, I estimate the actual mobilization will be between 10,000 to 15,000, as the available equipment from the US Navy can support a maximum of 16,000.
The current situation is very similar to three months ago, when the US was simultaneously deploying combat troops to the Middle East while also stating they wanted to negotiate. But the purpose of the negotiations was actually to buy time to prepare the military.
I estimate that the US military will likely use ground forces. The upcoming process will resemble the Vietnam War.
When the Vietnam War began, it was also a small-scale military operation, which ended up dragging on for 15 years.
Initially, the US used its Navy and Air Force to blockade Vietnam. After the Gulf of Tonkin incident, the US realized that the blockade was ineffective and began using small-scale landing forces for special operations, landing 3,500 troops in Da Nang.
Once the landing forces were deployed, there was no turning back. Because if they lost, they could not retreat, they had to send more soldiers for rescue, which led to a strategy of escalation, eventually turning into a full-scale war.
The entire process was: using air and naval superiority, non-contact warfare -- unable to eliminate the opponent -- small-scale Marine Corps -- escalation strategy -- full-scale war.
In the end, the situation fell into a stalemate of 'unable to win, unable to negotiate, unable to withdraw.'
Unable to win, unable to negotiate, unable to withdraw, isn't that exactly the situation with Iran now? The US cannot withdraw half-heartedly; once they withdraw, Iran will become a genuine hegemon in the Gulf. This would undermine the foundation of petrodollars.
I see this rhythm, the more I look at it, the more it resembles the early days of the US Vietnam War.
I speculate that once ground war begins, Iran will pay a heavy price for a hollow victory. $BNB