Trump is caught in a dilemma, Iran vows not to give up, short-term rebounds are difficult to sustain, a big waterfall is about to come 📉📉
Bitcoin breaking through 69,000 USD, I believe it is a resonance of alternative safe-haven attributes and speculative funds, and not a trend-based situation. Iran has always been a major user of Bitcoin in the region, and against the backdrop of a lackluster performance of traditional safe-haven assets, some funds view Bitcoin as a 'decentralized alternative safe-haven asset,' whose borderless and sovereign credit-unconstrained attributes have gained the favor of safe-haven funds during the window period of geopolitical games (especially with the transfer of dollars and gold).
On the other hand, the scale of open contracts in the Bitcoin futures market continues to rise, with a large number of short positions being concentrated and closed after prices broke through key resistance levels, triggering a short-term squeeze and forming a positive cycle of 'rise - closing - another rise.'
More importantly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows of funds, and the ongoing entry of institutional funds is indeed leveraging the situation in Iran to reconstruct pricing logic, making it gradually shift from a purely speculative asset over the past few months to an alternative asset that institutions recognize as a preferred option for quickly breaking sanctions and avoiding the problem of transporting gold. Ultimately, it has led to this rapid mini bull market. I see that today's trading volume has even doubled.
However, the biggest risk in the global market currently lies in the extreme fragility of optimistic expectations! Especially with the rise of risk assets in the market, it has already fully priced in the optimistic scenario of a successful ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, but there is still a huge gap in the core demands of both sides. The market realistically does not expect an agreement to be reached before April 30. Iran has clearly stated that it will not easily give up its strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz and even plans to block the Strait of Mandeb!
BTC is currently fluctuating in the 60,000 - 74,000 range, which is within the dense trading area of 53,500 - 74,000 in 2024.
The current major trend has turned bearish, regardless of whether the subsequent market approaches 74,000 or nears 60,000, the essence is still preparing for a break below 53,500.
The longer the fluctuations last, the smoother the decline will be, just like sharpening a knife; the longer it is sharpened, the sharper the blade will be, and the strength of the subsequent breakdown will only be stronger. #特朗普48小时最后通牒 $BTC
Bitcoin breaking through 69,000 USD, I believe it is a resonance of alternative safe-haven attributes and speculative funds, and not a trend-based situation. Iran has always been a major user of Bitcoin in the region, and against the backdrop of a lackluster performance of traditional safe-haven assets, some funds view Bitcoin as a 'decentralized alternative safe-haven asset,' whose borderless and sovereign credit-unconstrained attributes have gained the favor of safe-haven funds during the window period of geopolitical games (especially with the transfer of dollars and gold).
On the other hand, the scale of open contracts in the Bitcoin futures market continues to rise, with a large number of short positions being concentrated and closed after prices broke through key resistance levels, triggering a short-term squeeze and forming a positive cycle of 'rise - closing - another rise.'
More importantly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows of funds, and the ongoing entry of institutional funds is indeed leveraging the situation in Iran to reconstruct pricing logic, making it gradually shift from a purely speculative asset over the past few months to an alternative asset that institutions recognize as a preferred option for quickly breaking sanctions and avoiding the problem of transporting gold. Ultimately, it has led to this rapid mini bull market. I see that today's trading volume has even doubled.
However, the biggest risk in the global market currently lies in the extreme fragility of optimistic expectations! Especially with the rise of risk assets in the market, it has already fully priced in the optimistic scenario of a successful ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, but there is still a huge gap in the core demands of both sides. The market realistically does not expect an agreement to be reached before April 30. Iran has clearly stated that it will not easily give up its strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz and even plans to block the Strait of Mandeb!
BTC is currently fluctuating in the 60,000 - 74,000 range, which is within the dense trading area of 53,500 - 74,000 in 2024.
The current major trend has turned bearish, regardless of whether the subsequent market approaches 74,000 or nears 60,000, the essence is still preparing for a break below 53,500.
The longer the fluctuations last, the smoother the decline will be, just like sharpening a knife; the longer it is sharpened, the sharper the blade will be, and the strength of the subsequent breakdown will only be stronger. #特朗普48小时最后通牒 $BTC