#BTC/Stock Market – Future Trend Analysis
Sunday's Major Report: Comprehensive Analysis of Key Points
Technical Analysis/Liquidity Analysis/Market Psychology Analysis
After experiencing the largest liquidation event in history recently, we no longer need to maintain an 'extremely bearish' stance—though this does not mean a shift to 'extremely bullish.' Trading has never been black and white; this moment is crucial for assessing the next major market movement. This record-breaking chain liquidation is the storm I have long anticipated, and it has finally arrived. If you survived the most brutal liquidation wave in cryptocurrency history, congratulations! All participants who shorted alongside me have been validated: countless altcoins have gone to zero, and our limit buy orders executed at extremely low levels. The profits from shorting altcoins are remarkable, far exceeding what most earn from trading over the years. Every follower who trusted my warnings is a winner at this moment.
Over 1.6 million traders were liquidated, a record number that confirms the extreme crowding in the long camp—just as I have repeatedly emphasized in recent weeks. Almost all long position holders were obliterated in the collapse of countless trading pairs to zero. Since August, market makers have been continuously selling BTC and altcoins, secretly building short positions while retail investors continue to chase every minor rebound. I define this range as the reason for the 'distribution phase': a large-scale liquidation event was bound to occur, and now it has come to pass. Ladies and gentlemen, this round of trading can be called a perfect execution.
Some altcoin buy orders shared in the member channel two weeks ago have been triggered:
SUI: $0.90
XRP: $1.60
ONDO: $0.40
ETH: $3,200
HYPE: $20
This is one of the craziest battles in my trading career: the crazy profits from shorting altcoins and the triggered buy orders have created inexpressible extreme gains.
This strategic cleansing may indicate two possible directions:
Market makers decide to end the bull market, cashing out profits from altcoins, long positions, and spot holdings after distributing for several weeks.
This is a thorough washout before the next stage, laying the groundwork for a new round of accumulation (especially pushing up altcoins).
How to position correctly? The answer is complicated and requires strong risk management—especially since we have already gained substantial profits, possessing decision-making initiative and risk tolerance, making it hard for others to catch up. The safety margin at current altcoin entry points is extremely high; even if BTC drops another 20-25%, our holding cost is still hard to breach.
The blood moon effect is once again validated: historical data shows that markets often crash 21-28 days after a blood moon. This time, it was delayed to 33 days, yet the pattern still holds. Today's market not only destroyed retail long positions but also severely impacted institutional trading desks and some market makers, indicating cracks have appeared in the deep system. The overall picture will gradually become clearer in the coming days or weeks. This is precisely why I emphasize that 'the situation is more complex than simply rising or falling'—extreme emotions have dissipated: just days ago, bulls were extremely greedy, but now they are humbly retreating, and the market has been purified.
It is worth noting that this round of plummet coincided with the repayment release from FTX—I have repeatedly warned that such events are often accompanied by extremely pessimistic trends, whether stemming from panic, manipulation, or strategic liquidation of new funds. Today's dire situation is precisely such: almost all leveraged long positions (even 2-3 times leverage) have been wiped out. This is why we maintained zero altcoin positions and zero longs before the collapse. The true objective is clear: maximize the liquidation of participants, especially the overly leveraged altcoin enthusiasts. The liquidation rate for altcoins is nearing 99%, and the market has been thoroughly cleaned. Therefore, even if BTC drops further, our current altcoin entry points still possess significant safety margins. The holdings are as follows:
SUI: $0.90
XRP: $1.60
ONDO: $0.40
ETH: $3,200
HYPE: $20
These are all long-term holding positions.
Do not easily believe the media narrative that 'tariffs cause crashes'. The truth is simple: greed and leverage have destroyed the market. It is this kind of frenzy that appears at the end of cycles that has buried everything. The stock market is under pressure as well: the US stock market opened as usual on Monday, but due to the closure of the federal system (except for FedNow) on Columbus Day, financial institutions cannot conduct interbank fund transfers—if the stock market declines and triggers margin calls, it will create a dangerous situation.
Market status on Monday
US stocks (NYSE & NASDAQ): Trading as usual
US bond market: Closed
Federal agencies and banks: Closed; US Postal Service: Suspended services
On a macro level: China has just banned Nvidia GPU purchases (about 40% of its revenue relies on the Chinese market). Previously, sales through Singapore and Taiwan were mostly directed to Chinese customers. Now, both Chinese and American companies are cutting GPU demand, and American companies are accelerating the replacement of Nvidia with self-developed chips. As predicted: the cliff-like drop in Nvidia's demand is forming, and the company is using inflated data to cover its downturn.
Market framework reset
The historic altcoin liquidation event has achieved a market purification effect equivalent to the preset goal of 'BTC dropping to 90,000'. This means the original downward expectations need to be recalibrated—the market has not reached 90,000 but has achieved the same cleaning intensity.
Current strategy: Hold cash + BTC and altcoin spot + BTC short hedge until Monday's US stock market opening provides directional guidance (which may take longer). At that time, we will determine the next stage direction: restart the bull market accumulation or continue the defensive stance. If prices rise, our altcoins and BTC spots will profit significantly, while the value of BTC and altcoin shorts will diminish (but not incur losses). Given that half of the short positions were closed during the drop (with profits transferred to BTC spot), we have achieved the highest level of risk management and capital protection.
Current holdings overview
BTC strategy: Half of the short profits will be transferred to spot in the 105-110k range (real-time updates in the member channel), with the other half of the shorts retained as a hedge, creating dual protection.
Altcoin strategy: RSR and AVAX shorts had half closed in the crash (profiting 40-50%), while the remaining altcoins perfectly triggered the aforementioned buy orders. The maximum altcoin holdings are #ONDO (average price $0.40-0.50) and #SUI (average price $0.90). The remaining RSR and AVAX shorts will be decided based on US stock performance.
Outlook projection
The market has not touched 90,000 but has achieved the same cleaning effect, and the technical pattern has changed. We wait for Monday's US stock market opening to confirm the next stage direction: will it start a new bull market reaching 130,000 historical highs, or will it confirm the ultimate top? Currently, I lean bullish! Key threshold: the white line must be maintained (if breached, look to the purple line), which signals the failure of the bull market narrative. Even if we are bullish in the short term, the risk management strategy remains unchanged. We sometimes adjust according to the dynamics of the US stock market; there is no need for full risk exposure at the moment—the probabilities of bulls and bears have returned to balance after the drop.
Once the dust settles, we prepare for the next wave of major market movements. While it is still difficult to determine the specific direction, it can be confirmed that the extreme bearish scenario has concluded. The market has reset, and the bullish and bearish forces in cryptocurrency have returned to balance, but the stock market has yet to react. Therefore, the opening of the US stock market and the trend of the yen remain core observation indicators.
