Iran's refusal of the ceasefire and the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz create an "ideal storm" for financial markets:
Oil (Brent/WTI):
Forecast: Price increase. Since about 20% of the world's oil consumption passes through the strait, its closure pushes prices to levels of $120–$150 per barrel.
Risk: Any escalation (for example, strikes on energy infrastructure) could trigger a panic rally, exacerbating global inflation.
Bitcoin (BTC):
Status of "digital gold": So far, BTC shows a high correlation with risk assets (stocks) rather than safe havens (gold).
Reaction: News of the breakdown of negotiations usually puts pressure on the price, causing traders to go into cash (USDT/USD) due to uncertainty. However, historically, BTC quickly recovers after the initial shock, as it is perceived as a tool outside of sanctions pressure.
Waiting: The range $63,000–$75,000 remains key. An upward breakout is only possible if there is de-escalation or if investors start to widely use BTC as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies during the war.
Conclusion: The market remains in "Risk-Off" mode. For traders on Binance, this means increased volatility and the need to closely monitor news from Islamabad and statements from the White House.
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