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Author: Fortune (anonymous insider)
Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide: The prediction market is evolving from niche tools to mainstream financial tracks. Paradigm is not satisfied with just being an investor; it is starting to build infrastructure personally. Behind this action is that top crypto VCs are redefining their boundaries by incubating projects— from Ithaca to Tempo and then to the prediction market terminal, Paradigm is increasingly resembling a product company.
The full text is as follows:
One of the most influential investment institutions in the crypto circle is seeking a larger share of the rapidly growing prediction market pie. According to insiders, the venture capital firm Paradigm is developing a prediction market trading terminal aimed at professional traders and market makers. Insiders requested anonymity to discuss this non-public business plan. It is reported that Paradigm partner Arjun Balaji has been leading this project since the end of 2025.
Balaji did not respond to requests for comment, and Paradigm's spokesperson also declined to comment on the matter.
The advancement of this trading terminal project coincides with mainstream financial institutions competing to establish a presence in the prediction market. Prediction markets allow traders to speculate on the outcomes of sports events, election trends, and even Bitcoin prices, which have gained popularity in recent years.
According to two informed sources, Paradigm is also considering whether to establish an internal market-making platform for the prediction market alongside the development of the trading terminal.
In addition, a third informed source familiar with Paradigm stated that the venture capital firm is working with researchers to explore the feasibility of creating a prediction market index. The core idea of this concept is to bundle multiple prediction markets into a tradable product, similar to how the S&P 500 index consolidates stocks of 500 companies into one index. Currently, Paradigm has begun aggregating prediction market data into a public dashboard.
Kalshi and Polymarket
Paradigm is an important investor in Kalshi, one of the two leading platforms in the prediction market. In 2025, the venture capital firm participated in three rounds of financing for Kalshi and led the round in December that pushed Kalshi's valuation to 11 billion dollars. Currently, Kalshi has completed a new round of financing of at least 1 billion dollars, raising its valuation to 22 billion dollars.
Paradigm co-founder and managing partner Matt Huang serves on the board of Kalshi. According to an informed source, Paradigm's development of the prediction market trading terminal does not constitute competition with Kalshi's platform business.
Competitor Polymarket is also expanding rapidly. According to the Wall Street Journal, the platform is negotiating a new round of financing, with a valuation of about 20 billion dollars. Meanwhile, a new venture capital firm focusing on prediction markets has also been established, backed by the CEOs of two major prediction market platforms.
Paradigm's bet on prediction markets also occurs against the backdrop of the company's continuous expansion of its business boundaries—from its historical focus on the digital asset field to a broader technology track. According to the Wall Street Journal, Paradigm is raising funds for a new fund with a maximum size of 1.5 billion dollars, and its investment direction will no longer be limited to crypto, but will also cover AI and robotics.
Paradigm has a tradition of incubating its own projects. In 2024, Paradigm's Chief Technology Officer Georgios Konstantopoulos founded the crypto software development company Ithaca and became its CEO. Recently, Paradigm collaborated with fintech giant Stripe to jointly create Tempo—a high-speed blockchain designed for stablecoins. Managing partner Huang is leading this project. According to an informed source, Tempo had approximately 70 employees as of early March.