It has been eight years, and I still remember the looks my relatives gave me back then, as if they were looking at a spendthrift. Friends don't say it out loud, but they probably wait for the day when I truly lose everything, hoping to pull me up, or just to watch the show.
But now, I have settled down in Shanghai, holding the steering wheel, and what wakes me up every day is not an alarm clock. All of this is not due to ancestral merit nor a lucky break hitting a hundred times return. It's just in this fluctuating K-line chart, each trade is like being carved out with a knife.
Today, let's not talk about empty words or grand prospects. Let's talk about the points I have carved into my bones after taking countless hits with real money. If you can take in one sentence, you might save yourself from losing a car.
Idea One: After a rise, slowly grind down, most likely someone is 'picking up bargains'.
Seeing a coin suddenly surge, then start to die a slow death, dropping a bit every day, which is particularly frustrating. At this time, many people can't hold on, thinking 'it's over, they are starting to trap people,' and hurry to run. But from my experience, this often means that someone is secretly and gradually accumulating chips while the market hesitates. They are just waiting for you to panic and give up your chips. When it's truly time to run, the scene is often more 'lively'.
Idea Two: After a sharp drop, if it slowly bounces back, be cautious.
On the contrary, if a big bearish candlestick comes crashing down, but then it doesn’t continue to plummet, instead slowly and seemingly 'steadily' climbs back up. Many people will think 'it’s oversold, it’s the bottom,' and rush in to bottom-fish. But be careful, sometimes this is like a gentle trap, making you feel safe, while in reality, someone might be quietly transferring goods to you during every small rebound. This is called 'a gentle retreat.'
Idea Three: A lively peak doesn’t necessarily collapse immediately; a quiet peak is truly dangerous.
If a coin rises to a high position and there is still huge trading volume with a bustling crowd, it shows that although some people are selling, there are also many who believe it can go higher and are willing to jump in. At this time, the market might not end immediately. What is most feared? It is when the price is high, but the trading volume has already collapsed, and no one is playing. It’s like the silence before a snowstorm, often indicating that really no one is willing to take the next hit, and when it collapses, it will be quick and fierce.
Idea Four: If there is suddenly a surge in volume at the foot of the mountain, don't rush to treat it as a charge.
After falling for a long time, suddenly a big bullish candlestick appears, glowing red, and many people shout 'it's reversed! The bull is here!'. Don’t rush, this might just be 'drawing a pie' to attract those who are anxiously waiting for a rebound. A truly reliable bottom signal is often a period of extreme quiet (low volume fluctuation), everyone is numb, and then capital quietly and continuously flows in, forming a real, solid breakthrough. That sudden 'surprise' often has questionable sustainability.
Finally, what I want to say the most is: In the end, what we are trading is not code, but our own emotions. The candlestick chart is just the final result, while the volume and market sentiment during the process are the truths hidden beneath the ice. The market is always there, and this market never lacks opportunities. But if you can't stabilize your mindset and are led by fear and greed, then no matter how much capital you have, it will never be enough to fill in.
These are some practical thoughts I have after stumbling through the pitfalls myself. The market has no gods, and I am not one. Just some words of experience, hoping to bring you a different perspective. Stay calm, let's support each other.
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