👑 “Long Live the King.”
Arthur Hayes just dropped another macro banger — this time explaining why Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is officially dead ⚰️
Here’s the breakdown you need to understand the next era of crypto markets 🧵
💡 Money = power.
Governments always debase their currency chasing “post-scarcity utopia.”
Every empire prints → every empire falls.
Satoshi’s Bitcoin fixed that — and now it’s becoming the world’s soundest money again.
🧠 The 4-year Bitcoin cycle is broken.
It used to follow halving events + liquidity peaks, but:
Global liquidity ≠ synced anymore
The Fed and PBOC now drive asynchronous credit waves
These shape Bitcoin’s price more than halvings ever will
📈 Past $BTC bull runs explained by liquidity:
1️⃣ 2009–2013 → QE & China’s credit boom
2️⃣ 2013–2017 → Yuan devaluation + ICO mania
3️⃣ 2017–2021 → COVID helicopter money
Now: 2025 → Trump, Yellen, and Xi printing again
🇺🇸 US: Trump pushes “run it hot” → rate cuts despite inflation
🇨🇳 China: Easing deflation pressure → more credit
💵 Result: More liquidity = bullish for $BTC
TL;DR
🔹 The 4-year cycle is over.
🔹 The liquidity regime is the new compass.
🔹 Both US + China are about to flood markets with credit again.
📊 Bitcoin isn’t peaking — it’s preparing for its next empire phase.
Arthur Hayes just dropped another macro banger — this time explaining why Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is officially dead ⚰️
Here’s the breakdown you need to understand the next era of crypto markets 🧵
💡 Money = power.
Governments always debase their currency chasing “post-scarcity utopia.”
Every empire prints → every empire falls.
Satoshi’s Bitcoin fixed that — and now it’s becoming the world’s soundest money again.
🧠 The 4-year Bitcoin cycle is broken.
It used to follow halving events + liquidity peaks, but:
Global liquidity ≠ synced anymore
The Fed and PBOC now drive asynchronous credit waves
These shape Bitcoin’s price more than halvings ever will
📈 Past $BTC bull runs explained by liquidity:
1️⃣ 2009–2013 → QE & China’s credit boom
2️⃣ 2013–2017 → Yuan devaluation + ICO mania
3️⃣ 2017–2021 → COVID helicopter money
Now: 2025 → Trump, Yellen, and Xi printing again
🇺🇸 US: Trump pushes “run it hot” → rate cuts despite inflation
🇨🇳 China: Easing deflation pressure → more credit
💵 Result: More liquidity = bullish for $BTC
TL;DR
🔹 The 4-year cycle is over.
🔹 The liquidity regime is the new compass.
🔹 Both US + China are about to flood markets with credit again.
📊 Bitcoin isn’t peaking — it’s preparing for its next empire phase.