$BASED This afternoon at 4 PM, alpha will be released, and at 6 PM there will be spot trading from other exchanges. Before the airdrop, let's discuss the trading logic: Currently, there are two completely different viewpoints among alpha traders. The first wave suggests that the selling pressure from the airdrop is too high, which is indeed the case based on the official information released, as there is a 16% airdrop share. It's really hard to hold up. The other wave claims that based resources are quite good, and the investment costs are not low either, so the market should stabilize. I'll share my views from a few simple aspects:
1. The path on based, bn has not announced contracts, and if the project party does not catch the market, they will lose an opportunity to expand liquidity. OKX has already listed spot trading, and everyone knows that OKX's coin listing strategy review is very strict, even more so than Coinbase. Therefore, the concept of "running away" can be dismissed here.
2. There is a total of 16% selling pressure, but 6.8% of the share has already been staked, leaving less than 10%. It's worth noting that there aren't many discussions about the based airdrop on x; I suspect it's likely the project party's insider trading.
3. Rumors say that the strength behind based is quite solid, with connections to Korean exchanges, so this wave of pressure at the opening must be sustained.
4. To be honest, I don't think the price of 100m is high. If the opening price were 300m given the above information, I would definitely be short. But at the current price and based on the information above, I believe the project is undervalued.
5. I am relatively optimistic about the project, but I cannot deny that selling pressure is an objective fact. The question is only at what price it will be bought. The pool price is around 75, and I most likely won't buy at the alpha launch. More so, if there is more FUD during the 4-6 PM period that breaks the range or if there are no opportunities during that process, I will wait for 6 PM when there is obvious selling before I decide to buy.
1. The path on based, bn has not announced contracts, and if the project party does not catch the market, they will lose an opportunity to expand liquidity. OKX has already listed spot trading, and everyone knows that OKX's coin listing strategy review is very strict, even more so than Coinbase. Therefore, the concept of "running away" can be dismissed here.
2. There is a total of 16% selling pressure, but 6.8% of the share has already been staked, leaving less than 10%. It's worth noting that there aren't many discussions about the based airdrop on x; I suspect it's likely the project party's insider trading.
3. Rumors say that the strength behind based is quite solid, with connections to Korean exchanges, so this wave of pressure at the opening must be sustained.
4. To be honest, I don't think the price of 100m is high. If the opening price were 300m given the above information, I would definitely be short. But at the current price and based on the information above, I believe the project is undervalued.
5. I am relatively optimistic about the project, but I cannot deny that selling pressure is an objective fact. The question is only at what price it will be bought. The pool price is around 75, and I most likely won't buy at the alpha launch. More so, if there is more FUD during the 4-6 PM period that breaks the range or if there are no opportunities during that process, I will wait for 6 PM when there is obvious selling before I decide to buy.