The market outlook remains pessimistic; proceed with caution and cherish every opportunity.

[Crypto/TradFi Merge Update] 03-29
Important News1. Escalation of tensions in the Middle East: US military formulates ground operation plan for Iraq over several weeks, Houthi rebels open new front.
US media reports indicate that the Pentagon is preparing for a multi-week ground operation in Iran, with the core tactic being a "decapitation strike" targeting Iran's oil lifeline rather than a full-scale invasion, aiming to quickly destroy Iran's threat capabilities. US Vice President Vance subsequently stated that all military objectives had been achieved and that withdrawal would be imminent. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels announced missile strikes against Israel, officially opening a new front in Yemen and exacerbating the risk of spillover from the regional conflict. Analysts believe that the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has already driven up international oil prices, and an escalation of the situation could trigger more severe global inflation and supply chain crises. Data from the forecasting market Polymarket shows that the market believes there is a 64% probability that US troops will enter Iran before the end of April.
2. Coinbase faces strong user backlash for pushing prediction market notifications; CEO apologizes, citing a bug.
Coinbase has faced widespread criticism for bombarding users with betting notifications from its partner prediction market platform Kalshi during the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, with users accusing it of indirectly encouraging gambling. CEO Brian Armstrong responded that the issue stemmed from a vulnerability in the targeted notification system, and that he has begun fixing it and apologized to users. He also stated that Coinbase will strike a balance between "not forcing users" and "providing diverse trading options." This incident highlights the trust and regulatory risks faced by crypto exchanges when expanding into peripheral businesses such as prediction markets.
3. Coin Center warns: If the Clarity Act stalls, the US crypto industry will face future government uncertainty and pressure.
Peter Van Valkenburgh, executive director of crypto advocacy group Coin Center, warned that if the CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify the structure of the crypto market, fails to pass the current Congress, a future US government unfriendly to the industry could arbitrarily suppress the crypto sector through enforcement discretion without a clear legal framework. The bill is currently stalled in the Senate due to disagreements among banks, crypto companies, and lawmakers regarding key provisions such as stablecoin yields. The lack of legislative protection will expose privacy tool developers and others to higher legal risks.
4. Hong Kong and South Korean lawmakers launch Asia's first cross-regional Web3 policy cooperation alliance.
Hong Kong Legislative Council member Ng Kit-chung and South Korean National Assembly members jointly launched the "Hong Kong-South Korea Web3 Policy Promotion Alliance," focusing on digital asset regulation, stablecoin mechanisms, the integration of AI and blockchain, and the harmonization of regulatory standards. This alliance is Asia's first cross-regional non-governmental policy cooperation platform, aiming to promote interconnectivity and policy synergy within the Web3 ecosystems of both regions, marking a new collaborative phase in Asian crypto regulatory dialogue.
Market Analysis1. BTC hovers around $67,000, and Glassnode indicates that the accumulation strength within the cost range of new investors is still insufficient.
BTC broke through $67,000 today, with a slight increase of 0.07% intraday. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode points out that the current price is at the lower end of the cost range for new investors ($60,000-$70,000). Although there has been some accumulation of tokens in this range, its overall size and density are still lower than the typical levels that have historically driven strong rallies, indicating that the market has not yet formed a clear upward momentum signal, and macroeconomic uncertainty remains the core factor dominating the price.
2. Market sentiment is extremely panicked; the Coinbase BTC premium index has been negative for 10 consecutive days.
Data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has dropped to 9, indicating a state of "extreme panic" in the market. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 10 consecutive days, currently at -0.0857%. This negative premium typically reflects stronger selling pressure or capital outflows in the US market compared to global markets, suggesting a significant decline in risk appetite and strong risk aversion among US investors.
Project Updates1. BNP Paribas launches six Bitcoin and Ethereum ETN products for retail clients.
BNP Paribas has announced the expansion of its crypto asset product line, launching six exchange-traded notes (ETFs) in France on March 30th, pegged to Bitcoin and Ethereum, for retail clients. This product allows investors to gain exposure to mainstream crypto assets indirectly through traditional securities accounts without directly holding digital currencies, marking a further step by major traditional banks to lower the barriers to entry for ordinary investors in crypto assets.
2. The World Foundation sold $65 million worth of WLD tokens off-exchange, with some locked up for 6 months.
The World Foundation disclosed that its entities sold approximately $65 million worth of WLD tokens to four counterparties via over-the-counter transactions over the past week, at an average price of approximately $0.2719. The funds raised will be used for project operations, research and development, and ecosystem building. Notably, approximately $25 million worth of tokens included a six-month lock-up period to minimize direct impact on the secondary market.
3. The Sui mainnet has completed the V1.68.1 upgrade, with the protocol version upgraded to 118 and address alias functionality enabled.
Sui Network announced that its mainnet has been successfully upgraded to version V1.68.1, with the protocol version simultaneously upgraded to 118. Key upgrade features include enabling address aliases to improve user experience, enhancing system metadata security, and fixing a vulnerability in simulated transactions that could have caused full nodes to crash.
4. Lista DAO discloses progress on the USR vulnerability incident: Over 97% of risk positions have been repaid, almost fully resolved.
Lista DAO has provided an update on the handling of the Resolv Labs stablecoin USR security incident. Of the $8.6 million in risky loans previously involved, $8.4 million has been repaid, all positions have been fully redeemed, and neither the protocol nor users have suffered losses. Currently, only one position of approximately $26,000 remains to be processed, and the risk has been almost completely resolved.
5. Ave.ai has confirmed that its official mascot's name is "Aiwuwu".
Web3 information platform Ave.ai officially announced the name of its official mascot, which has been active for several months, as "Ai Wuwu". The project team emphasized that the image is only a brand mascot and does not involve any token issuance or project endorsement.
other1. Institutions and funds continue to cash out, putting pressure on market liquidity.
Market monitoring revealed that the World Foundation sold $65 million worth of WLD tokens through over-the-counter (OTC) trading for project operations and ecosystem development. On the same day, the Ethereum Foundation also sold 5,000 ETH (approximately $10.21 million) to support daily operations. Analysts point out that although the official statement indicates the funds are for infrastructure development, the continued OTC selling by large entities during the bear market undoubtedly puts additional pressure on market liquidity, highlighting the difference in circumstances between "Builders" and "Traders" in the current cycle.
2. Goldman Sachs CEO reverses stance, personally purchases Bitcoin.
Reports have confirmed that the CEO of Goldman Sachs has begun personally holding Bitcoin. This move is seen as a significant shift in the attitude of top figures in traditional finance towards cryptocurrency assets, given his previous public skepticism or negativity towards Bitcoin. Market observers believe this reflects a deepening understanding at the institutional level and could have a significant psychological impact on the entry of traditional funds into the market.
3. The total value of on-chain tokenized stocks surpasses the milestone of $1 billion.
Data shows that the total value of on-chain tokenized stocks has surpassed the $1 billion mark. This growth signifies the accelerating market acceptance of the mapping and trading of traditional assets (RWA) on the blockchain, making it an important bridge connecting the crypto market and traditional finance. Analysts point out that this continued expansion introduces new asset classes and potential sources of liquidity to the market.
4. A major investor's bet on a gold price rebound failed, resulting in losses exceeding one million US dollars.
On-chain data shows that a whale address recently liquidated its entire position of 1869.79 XAUT tokens after holding them for over two weeks, incurring a loss of $1.096 million. This trader entered the position on March 12th at approximately $5075 and ultimately sold at a loss on March 29th at around $4488. This case highlights the significant risks even for crypto products pegged to physical assets in the current volatile market, and the erosion of trading confidence among some large investors.
5. AI trading agents have fully penetrated the prediction market, outpacing human speed.
Industry reports indicate that AI-powered trading agents are performing high-frequency operations, scanning hundreds of prediction markets per second, far exceeding the efficiency of any human trader. This trend foreshadows a fundamental shift in the competitive landscape of prediction markets and related financial sectors, with algorithm-driven decision-making achieving absolute dominance in both speed and scale, posing a severe challenge to traditional trading strategies.