🔥The US bond market and expectations regarding the Fed rates have turned sharply in just a few weeks — this is one of the fastest shifts in recent years.
The yield on 2-year US bonds, which reflects expectations for rates, has risen above 4% and has broken through the Fed rate level (3.64%) from below. Historically, this signals tightening rather than easing.
Just a few weeks ago, the market was pricing in two cuts in 2026. Now — there is already a probability of a rate hike (~48% by January 2027) and a baseline scenario of no rate changes at least until September 2027.
Against this backdrop, macro and geopolitical risks have intensified (including the conflict between the US and Iran), which has accelerated the rise in yields. Meanwhile, the labor market is already weakening — this adds to the contradictions.
Technically, the yield has broken through a descending triangle and is heading towards resistance at 4.5–5%. If oil remains above $90, these levels will likely be tested.
The year 2026 looks extremely unstable and volatile.
$BTC
$ETH
#bitcoin #Ethereum
The yield on 2-year US bonds, which reflects expectations for rates, has risen above 4% and has broken through the Fed rate level (3.64%) from below. Historically, this signals tightening rather than easing.
Just a few weeks ago, the market was pricing in two cuts in 2026. Now — there is already a probability of a rate hike (~48% by January 2027) and a baseline scenario of no rate changes at least until September 2027.
Against this backdrop, macro and geopolitical risks have intensified (including the conflict between the US and Iran), which has accelerated the rise in yields. Meanwhile, the labor market is already weakening — this adds to the contradictions.
Technically, the yield has broken through a descending triangle and is heading towards resistance at 4.5–5%. If oil remains above $90, these levels will likely be tested.
The year 2026 looks extremely unstable and volatile.
$BTC
$ETH
#bitcoin #Ethereum
