北极星BTC

At lunchtime, sharing a line from Wang Chuan:
“Very few people go bankrupt from spending money on luxurious food, drink, and entertainment.”
Most people go bankrupt because of impulsive investment decisions, such as using high leverage.
You can feel bad for half a day over an expensive hot pot meal, yet think nothing of using high leverage. Enjoy this meal without worry.

$BTC $ETH #Binance Square

CZ said just one thing early this morning:
“Bitcoin is dead” has been said many, many times—and those were precisely the best times to buy Bitcoin. 🤷‍♂️

$BTC $ETH #BinanceSquare

Here’s something a little sci-fi.
OpenAI announced on Friday that, from now on, frontier models won’t be allowed to connect to the real internet during training. Instead, they’ll use cached and simulated versions of webpages.
The move came after one of its frontier models exploited a configuration vulnerability on September 20 and got online by itself. The company immediately halted all the training scheduled for the rest of that month.
AI really is being trained under lock and key now.
Do you think that’s cautious, or a little scary?

$BTC $ETH #BinanceSquare

Saturday morning, the market is pretty quiet.
BTC is at 80,900, ETH at 2,380, both down about 1% over the past 24 hours.
BTC surged to 84,800 intraday on Wednesday, but now it’s back near 80,000, slowly grinding along. It’s the weekend—no rush.

$BTC $ETH #Binance Square

My take: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling below 5% basically means money is taking shelter in government bonds.

Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions: when everyone rushes to buy Treasuries, prices rise and yields fall. Yesterday, the 10-year yield closed around 4.95%, plunging roughly 17–18 basis points in a single day—its biggest one-day drop since March 2023.

The trigger was hard to miss: anxiety over AI spending is setting in. Meta’s earnings looked decent, but its cash flow turned negative for the first time in more than a decade, and it plans to issue non-voting shares to raise money for AI. The Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks took a hit too. Tensions are also running high in the Middle East, pushing oil prices up. When risk assets wobble, investors’ first instinct is to seek shelter—and Treasuries are back in favor.

So don’t read this as “the economy is about to improve” or “rate cuts are just around the corner.” It looks more like the market is reassessing the AI story, and money is taking cover for now. The 5% threshold matters more psychologically than numerically: above it, yields look high; below it, Treasuries suddenly seem like a “not bad, safe, and reasonably rewarding” place to hide.

And don’t view crypto in isolation: when risk appetite cools, BTC and ETH often wobble too. But ETFs are still seeing inflows, and prices are holding steady, suggesting some money is flowing in for structural reasons—not simply following sentiment in U.S. stocks.

Do you think this drop below 5% is a temporary flight to safety, or a sign that rates have peaked?

$BTC $ETH
#BinanceSquare

Elon Musk tweeted yesterday: Try Grok Bot, you will love it!

I’ve been using it extensively for over 10 days recently, and here are some thoughts: it’s unlike any other AI on the market.

If products like OPAI are AI 1.0, then GROK BOT is AGI at level 1.5. It’s closer to an all-purpose AI.

You can think of it as an assistant with its own computer. You log into your accounts on its computer, give it an instruction, and it gets everything done. You just review it and check the results. It can reduce creative friction by over 90%—it’s truly a godsend for content creators.

I highly recommend giving it a try.

$BTC $ETH #Binance Square

ETH has edged up a bit over the past couple of days, climbing back above 2,400, but money keeps flowing out of its ETFs.

They’ve seen net outflows for five days in a row, with $1.08 billion flowing out in October—the biggest monthly outflow this year. Meanwhile, BTC ETFs are still seeing inflows, albeit small ones.

Prices are rising while institutions are heading for the exits. Put those two things together, and it gets interesting. Either someone is buying over the counter, or this rally won’t last long.

Institutions clearly prefer Bitcoin right now. ETH will have to find new buyers on its own.

Who do you think is buying ETH right now?

$BTC $ETH #BinanceSquare

BTC has been hovering around $80,000 for five weeks. Volatility is shrinking, and so is trading volume.

This kind of calm doesn’t mean nothing’s happening—it’s more like a spring being compressed. Funding rates aren’t overheated, so longs aren’t getting too greedy; but retail traders’ long positions keep piling up as the market moves sideways.

Low volatility only tells you a move is coming, not which way. If it breaks upward, there’s still room to run; if it breaks downward, those piled-up longs become fuel.

For now, I’m trading less and waiting for the market to pick a direction.

Which way do you think this spring will go first—bounce up or slam down?

$BTC $ETH #BinanceSquare

Musk said that once China figures out how to make something, its ability to ramp up production often exceeds that of the rest of the world combined. Lithium batteries and solar power are examples, and memory chips could be the same.

But there’s a counterexample: once Chinese companies enter the market and drive prices down, they often end up unable to make money themselves, turning an entire industry from a blue ocean into a red ocean.

That’s what happened with solar power. LONGi, Tongwei, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar—the five industry leaders—each cut their workforce by more than 30% in 2024, and three of them reported substantial losses. Module prices were pushed below cost. The world’s largest production capacity brought collective losses instead.

Electric vehicles are no different. BYD priced the Qin at 70,000 yuan. From then on, the auto industry entered a cutthroat price war. Apart from BYD, which still makes a slim profit, virtually no one else is making money. The government had to step in to mediate the price war.
Production has scaled up, profit margins have shrunk. The market has been captured, but no one is having an easy time.

I wonder whether ChangXin can chart a different course this time.

$BTC $ETH #Binance Square

The Nasdaq fell 4.5% last week, while BTC dropped just 1.7%. What’s keeping it so resilient?

First, there are a ton of buy orders around $80,000. Glassnode data shows that the $80,000 level is Binance’s largest cluster of buy orders, and the average cost basis for U.S. spot ETF holdings is also around $81,500. Buyers are willing to step in.

Second, fewer people are selling at a loss. Long-term holders are realizing about 85% fewer losses than at the August peak. Even as prices fall, not many people seem willing to cut their losses.

Third, what got hammered this time were AI infrastructure stocks built up on borrowed money. BTC doesn’t have debt.

Of course, don’t get too optimistic. Treasury yields are still above 5%, and ETF flows remain uncertain. For prices to keep rising, fresh money needs to come in.

$BTC $ETH #Binance Square

AI stocks in the US have been looking a little shaky lately. The Nasdaq fell around 4.5% last week, while semiconductor stocks extended their losing streak to the longest since 2008.

The reason for the jitters is money. CoreWeave fell about 25% in five days, and yields on its unsecured bonds briefly topped 15%. Yields on highly rated data center bonds have risen from under 5% at the start of the year to nearly 7%. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI-related debt issuance will approach $500 billion this year.

A few thoughts: AI companies used to be able to raise money just by telling a good story. Now that money is getting more expensive, the story of burning through cash is harder to sell. Over in crypto, BTC is still holding steady above $80,000, without following the US stock market lower.

What do you think—will this hit US stocks first, or spill over into crypto?

$BTC $ETH #BinanceSquare

Why are altcoins becoming less and less profitable? Here are a few of my observations.

First, there are more and more altcoins, but very few manage to break through. The odds are now only a few in a thousand.

Second, liquidity is especially weak. Prices rise a little when they go up, but fall much harder when they go down. After a big rally, one round of corrections can wipe out all the gains.

Third, there’s been very little worth mentioning from airdrop farming over the past year or two. Even a profit of 10 or 20 yuan feels like a huge airdrop, and people are practically falling over themselves with gratitude.

Are you still holding the altcoins you have, or did you get out early?

$BTC $ETH #Binance Square

It can still be considered a bear market, although some data suggests the 50-week moving average has already turned bullish. But I’m not here to talk about bull or bear markets—I want to discuss a different phenomenon I’m seeing.

The order books for BTC and Ethereum are now deeper than they were at the peak of last year’s bull market. That means the market is more solid, and it’s no longer possible to drive prices down into a deep hole with just a small amount of money like before.

Why is this happening? BTC is now about a third cheaper than it was last year, yet the order books are even deeper in dollar terms. This suggests that market makers are more optimistic about the future of these two coins and are willing to commit more capital to them.

But this is also a strange phenomenon: these two major coins are holding up very well, while altcoins are weak. Altcoin order books are now much thinner than they were during last year’s bull market.

So we’re facing a major problem: the market is becoming highly polarized. BTC and Ethereum are holding strong, while altcoins are getting thinner and thinner.

$BTC $ETH #Binance Square

Indicator parameters sometimes exhibit lagging characteristics.

Currently, the market's technical parameters indicate that it is in the stage of being undervalued.

For example,
The AHR999 indicator is currently in the bottom-buying range.
25% of mining machines are already in a loss state.
MSTR and the spot ETF, these two whales, have a combined $120 billion in funds below the cost line.

Indicators have shown this situation in past phases, and it has been later confirmed as a cyclical bottom range, typically lasting 3-6 months. It has already been over two months now.

It may not be an absolute bottom, but the margin of safety is high, and future growth resilience is strong.

There is really no need to look at BTC with the high point emotions anymore.

AHR999 has already dropped to around 0.34, which in itself indicates that it is not expensive, but obviously low;
The Strategy holds 762,000 BTC, with an overall holding cost of about $75,694, and the current price is still below that cost line;
The Fear and Greed Index is still swaying in the cold zone, and the market sentiment is not hot at all; it is shrinking, it is fear, it is a bunch of people who are not really daring to reach out anymore.

Looking at these few indicators separately, it might still just seem "a bit cheap."
But looking at them together, the feeling is quite strong:
Now is not a hot zone, not an expensive zone, not a place that one would dare to chase with eyes closed. It feels more like a range suppressed by emotions, costs, and expectations.

So the most ironic point here is:

When at a high point, everyone talks about faith;
When at a low point, it’s time for the data to speak.

Now that these sets of data are presented, it is no longer a matter of "is it comfortable or not,"
but if you pretend not to see it,
it feels a bit like bullying yourself.

Information has discrepancies.

Some information is like a dam; it doesn't flow to everyone at once but first accumulates slowly in one place. Once it reaches a certain level, pressure builds up, and then it flows downstream. However, in the trading market, what is more common is another type—waterfall-like information disparity.

It doesn't flow slowly; it suddenly pours down.

Especially in the cryptocurrency space, this disparity is often not an abstract concept but rather starkly represented by money.

Many hot topics, a new project, or a new narrative, when they first emerge, are often just a small point of information. It might start with a few Twitter accounts discussing it, a few insiders noticing it, or just some small action that alerts those ahead: this thing might be about to rise.

At this point, the information hasn't spread yet, and the market hasn't reacted; those in front can acquire enough chips at an extremely low cost.

Before long, this information begins to gain momentum, bursting out from a small circle, being shared by more people, discussed by more bloggers, and seen by more retail investors, pushing price, sentiment, and trading volume up together. On the surface, it seems like an opportunity has arrived; but in reality, those in front have often already made a substantial profit.

Those behind see the heat, while those in front hold the chips.
Those behind see the trend, while those in front experience the disparity.

Therefore, when many people talk about 'the advantage of big players' or 'insider information', it often turns out that, more often than not, it's not some huge secret, but simply seeing it a little earlier, believing a little earlier, and taking action a little earlier than you.

Yet, the most expensive thing in trading is precisely this tiny bit of timing difference.

You may think you are seizing an opportunity, but often, what you get is just the second half after someone else has already completed the first half.

How did this thing suddenly come with a piercing arrow??

CRCL-1.81%

The market is like a pimp

You thought this deal was finally going to settle

It turns around and pushes you back on the bed for another round of hard fucking.

Many people in the cryptocurrency world have made money,

but the money they earned was ultimately taken away by a liquidation/loss.

What truly changes destiny is never a windfall,

but the ability to finally possess——

the capability to no longer repeatedly sabotage your own plans.

If this investment makes you stare at the market every night, lose emotional balance, and disrupt your rhythm,

then on the surface it is an asset

but essentially it is charging you a management fee for your life.

---This management fee consumes your principal to the point of overdraft.