History does not repeat itself, but the cycles are still similar
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万联welinkBTC
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$BTC Four on-chain pricing models,
all release the same signal:
We are currently in the "deep water value zone" in the late stage of a bear market!
1️⃣ STH cost has broken (Figure 1): The current BTC price (about $70.6K) has clearly fallen below the short-term holder cost line ($86.6K) and the true market average price ($90.0K). Short-term funds are deeply trapped, which is a typical characteristic of a bear market washout.
2️⃣ STH-RP / TMMP ratio bottoms out (Figure 2): This ratio is approaching the historical bottom red line of 0.75, indicating that market sentiment is nearing the extreme pessimism of a surrender period.
3️⃣ MVRV deviation (Figure 3): The price has fallen below the average line (0 Sigma, $99.9K), and is seeking a bottom towards -0.5 or even -1.0 Sigma, indicating that the big coin is currently in a severely undervalued state.
4️⃣ Median realized price (Figure 4): This is the most critical bottom support! The current price ($70.6K) has just come back to touch or even slightly dip below the median realized price ($71.2K). Historically, each time this line is touched, it means that the bottom range of the big cycle is not far away.
Combining the market cycle and on-chain indicators, it can currently be clearly defined as "late-stage bear market".
Downward, the space has been nearly sealed off by on-chain data (entering the extremely undervalued area);
but upward, the time of sideways fluctuation is still not enough, and the main force still needs time to wash away the weak hands.
Operational suggestion: Spot traders can start to dollar-cost average in batches, do not fall before dawn; contract traders should watch more and act less in the near term, beware of wash trading!
More on-chain indicator analysis details
View https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.surf.computer
#welinkBTC $BTC
all release the same signal:
We are currently in the "deep water value zone" in the late stage of a bear market!
1️⃣ STH cost has broken (Figure 1): The current BTC price (about $70.6K) has clearly fallen below the short-term holder cost line ($86.6K) and the true market average price ($90.0K). Short-term funds are deeply trapped, which is a typical characteristic of a bear market washout.
2️⃣ STH-RP / TMMP ratio bottoms out (Figure 2): This ratio is approaching the historical bottom red line of 0.75, indicating that market sentiment is nearing the extreme pessimism of a surrender period.
3️⃣ MVRV deviation (Figure 3): The price has fallen below the average line (0 Sigma, $99.9K), and is seeking a bottom towards -0.5 or even -1.0 Sigma, indicating that the big coin is currently in a severely undervalued state.
4️⃣ Median realized price (Figure 4): This is the most critical bottom support! The current price ($70.6K) has just come back to touch or even slightly dip below the median realized price ($71.2K). Historically, each time this line is touched, it means that the bottom range of the big cycle is not far away.
Combining the market cycle and on-chain indicators, it can currently be clearly defined as "late-stage bear market".
Downward, the space has been nearly sealed off by on-chain data (entering the extremely undervalued area);
but upward, the time of sideways fluctuation is still not enough, and the main force still needs time to wash away the weak hands.
Operational suggestion: Spot traders can start to dollar-cost average in batches, do not fall before dawn; contract traders should watch more and act less in the near term, beware of wash trading!
More on-chain indicator analysis details
View https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.surf.computer
#welinkBTC $BTC
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