The sentiment for gold (XAU/USD) today, Monday, March 23, 2026, is extremely pessimistic (Bearish). Despite the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the asset is experiencing one of its worst declines in years, losing more than 5% in a single session and breaking critical supports.

Here you have the breakdown of what is moving the market today:

1. The Factor "Fear of Inflation"

The curious thing is that, even though there is war, gold is not acting as a safe haven. The market fears that the rise in energy prices (oil above 100 USD) will trigger inflation. This forces central banks (like the Fed) to keep interest rates high for longer, which makes gold (which does not pay interest) less attractive compared to the dollar and bonds.

2. Key Technical Levels (Scalping and Trading)

If you’re trading today, keep these points in mind:

Current Price: Hovering around $4,230 - $4,240. It has already touched lows of $4,100 earlier in the session.

Immediate Resistance: The $4,310 - $4,330 area. Any rebound toward it could be viewed by sellers as an opportunity to open new shorts.

Critical Support: The 200-day EMA is near $4,200. If the price closes below this level, the long-term uptrend of 2025/2026 could be considered over, opening the door toward $4,000.

3. Correlations

Strong Dollar: The DXY is rising (99.70+), acting as the true safe haven today, which pressures gold to the downside.

Forced Liquidations: Part of the drop is due to many investors selling their gold to cover losses in the stock market (which is also collapsing today).

Summary for your strategy:

Sentiment is "Strong Sell." Technical indicators like the RSI show oversold conditions (14-20 levels), suggesting a technical rebound is possible, but bearish pressure remains dominant due to the strength of the dollar and interest rates.