Gold $PAXG 4500 breakdown, is it a trend reversal or a "golden pit"
Currently, the mainstream view holds that: Middle East situation → Oil prices soar → Inflation expectations rise → Federal Reserve turns hawkish → Funds switch to oil/chemicals.
But it's extremely counterintuitive:
1. The US dollar index has not shown significant gains; if it were truly due to heightened interest rate expectations, the dollar should have broken out and surged.
2. $BTC , as a liquidity-sensitive asset, should have experienced a sharp decline under such expectations, but it hasn't either.
I still believe that the fundamentals of gold have not changed, with continuous purchases by central banks, rising national debts, and uncertainties in geopolitics and financial markets.
The current decline is more about the rotation of funds and panic in sentiment; near the 200-day moving average should be a strong support level, and as long as it doesn't break below, there shouldn't be any major issues.
Currently, the mainstream view holds that: Middle East situation → Oil prices soar → Inflation expectations rise → Federal Reserve turns hawkish → Funds switch to oil/chemicals.
But it's extremely counterintuitive:
1. The US dollar index has not shown significant gains; if it were truly due to heightened interest rate expectations, the dollar should have broken out and surged.
2. $BTC , as a liquidity-sensitive asset, should have experienced a sharp decline under such expectations, but it hasn't either.
I still believe that the fundamentals of gold have not changed, with continuous purchases by central banks, rising national debts, and uncertainties in geopolitics and financial markets.
The current decline is more about the rotation of funds and panic in sentiment; near the 200-day moving average should be a strong support level, and as long as it doesn't break below, there shouldn't be any major issues.