1. In-depth Interpretation of 'Trump's Strategy' — A Carefully Designed Political Economy Game
1. Goal One: Precise 'Data Strike', Kidnapping the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve's Dependency: The Federal Reserve's decisions heavily rely on economic data, especially the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), JOLTS job openings, unemployment rate, and other labor market data. This data is collected, organized, and published by federal employees from government agencies (such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS).
Artificially Creating Data Distortion: Once the government shuts down, the release of this data will immediately stop. The Federal Reserve will be like 'flying in the dark', losing its most important navigational instrument. This will lead to several serious consequences:
Decision Paralysis: Without the latest and most authoritative data, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient justification for any policy adjustments (such as rate cuts). This greatly increases uncertainty for meetings in October or beyond.
Forced Turn: The Federal Reserve will have to rely more on predictive models and private sector data (such as ADP employment data, initial unemployment claims), but the comprehensiveness and authority of these data are not as strong as official data. This uncertainty itself will increase market volatility.
Market Expectation Management Failure: The core of the Federal Reserve's communication with the market is based on data. With missing data, the effectiveness of communication diminishes significantly, making the market more susceptible to emotions and speculation.
2. Goal Two: Political Blame, Shaping the Narrative
The Budget Battle is the Surface: The direct reason for the government shutdown is that Congress's two parties (currently the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and the Democratic-controlled Senate) failed to reach an agreement on the new fiscal year's budget.
Shifting Responsibility: Trump and his allies can completely shift the blame for the 'government shutdown' and 'federal employees being laid off' to the Democrats by refusing to pass the budget. In the battlefield of public opinion, this will create a powerful narrative: 'The Democrats would rather let the government shut down and ordinary employees become unemployed for unnecessary spending.'
Shaping Victims and Perpetrators: Federal employees who are 'permanently laid off' (in essence, unpaid leave, but the wording is very impactful) become the 'victims', while the Democrats are portrayed as the 'perpetrators'. This helps Trump consolidate his populist image of 'speaking for the people' and countering 'big government waste'.
3. Strategic Supplement: Core functions remain unaffected, ensuring the progress of the core agenda
Military and Security: Core national security departments such as the military and the Department of Homeland Security continue to operate, ensuring that the U.S. geopolitical action capacity remains unaffected.
Taxation and Finance: The IRS can still function (especially during tax season), and the Federal Reserve itself, as an independent agency, is not affected in its operations. This means the country's financial lifeblood and currency creation mechanism remain intact.
Tariffs and Trade Wars: The key functions of the USTR and CBP will continue, and policies like tariffs on China can continue to be enforced.
Summary: This is a 'precise shutdown'. It disrupts the Federal Reserve by paralyzing data collection functions, strikes political opponents by creating pain points for people's livelihoods, while carefully protecting core strategic and financial functions. If successful, Trump can exert pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts to stimulate the economy while scoring politically, truly a high-risk move.
2. Why the Market (Especially Bitcoin) Interprets This as 'Positive'?
1. Direct Bets on Federal Reserve Policy
Core Logic: The single biggest driving force in the market right now is the expectation of the timing and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Missing Data = Increased Probability of Rate Cuts: The market's reasoning chain is: missing labor data → the Federal Reserve cannot confirm whether the economy is still 'overheating' → the Federal Reserve tends to adopt 'insurance rate cuts' to prevent unexpected shocks → liquidity easing expectations come early.
Ignoring Economic Substance, Pursuing Liquidity: The market temporarily chooses to ignore the potential negative impact of the government shutdown on the economy (such as declining consumer confidence, government contractors unable to receive payments, etc.), instead focusing on how this event may 'force' the Federal Reserve to shift to easing more quickly. This is a typical liquidity trading logic of 'bad news is good news'.
2. The Illusion of 'Perfect Standstill'
'Not really having a negative impact on the economy' is key. Historical data on short-term shutdowns (for example, one to two weeks) shows that their direct impact on the macro economy is indeed limited. Once reopened, suppressed government spending and employee back pay will quickly be replenished.
Therefore, what investors see is an 'ideal scenario': a political disturbance that could force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates but would not cause lasting damage to the economy. This is seen as a perfect catalyst for risk assets.
3. The Special Role and Logic of Bitcoin
Liquidity-Sensitive Assets: Bitcoin has become more correlated with tech stocks and other risk assets in recent years, but one of its core narratives is the global liquidity situation. More dollars and lower interest rates are interpreted as beneficial for all risk assets and alternative assets, including Bitcoin.
Hedging? Or Opening Up Risks? There is a subtlety here. From a traditional perspective, a government shutdown should push up the dollar and U.S. treasuries (hedging). But the current market interprets it as a signal of 'risk on' because the expectation of rate cuts outweighs everything. At this time, Bitcoin is not playing the role of a geopolitical hedging tool but rather as an expected instrument of global liquidity easing.
A 'Detachment' Rise: Bitcoin's rise, to some extent, is detached from the domestic political drama in the U.S. Investors believe that regardless of how chaotic Washington is, as long as the Federal Reserve's faucet may open wider, then Bitcoin, as a 'digital reservoir', has a reason to rise. Recent trading and bottom fishing are bets on this macro logic.
Summary and Risk Warning
Interpreting a political crisis as a catalyst for an upcoming monetary policy easing.
However, the risks to be wary of include:
The Risk of Missed Expectations: If the government shutdown lasts too long (for example, more than a month), the real negative impact on the economy will begin to emerge, breaking the illusion of a 'perfect standstill' and turning 'bad news' back into 'bad news'.
The Independence of the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is very aware that it is being 'hijacked' by political games. To maintain its independence, it may act more hawkishly in both rhetoric and action to counter this political pressure, thus thwarting market expectations for rate cuts.
The Risk of Narrative Switching: If during this period, other significant data (such as the still hot CPI) or other major events (such as a further surge in international oil prices) occur, the market's focus may quickly shift away from 'government shutdown', and the current trading logic will also collapse.