Currently, the probability of Polymarket betting that its FDV will exceed $200 million on the day after launch is 87%.
Written by: Mahe, Foresight News
On March 23, the well-known wallet and centralized exchange Backpack in the Solana ecosystem will launch the BP token TGE. According to information previously released by Backpack, the total supply is set at 1 billion, and the contract address is: BPxxfRCXkUVhig4HS1Lh7kZqV6SPJhzfEk4x6fVBjPCy.
25% of the tokens will be unlocked at TGE (24% for point holders; 1% for Mad Lads). 37.5% of the tokens will be unlocked before the IPO. They will be unlocked gradually based on key milestones. All tokens are allocated to users who reach each supply increment milestone, which are based on measurable regulatory progress, product expansion, and broader market access.
37.5% will be unlocked after the listing. As corporate treasury funds, these will be completely locked until one year after the IPO. Tokens are held as strategic digital assets for long-term value creation. All team members and investors gain token exposure through the corporate treasury.
In the TGE phase, 25%, or 250 million tokens, will be immediately unlocked and fully allocated to community users, with no shares for teams or investors participating in the initial circulation.
Backpack founder Armani Ferrante announced the guiding principles for the project's tokenomics design. Its core goal is to prevent insiders from selling to retail investors. Before the project is listed in the United States, founders, executives, employees, or venture capitalists cannot profit from tokens. Moreover, circulating tokens will be specifically allocated to users and used for business growth incentives at key milestones such as entering new regions (like the EU, Japan, and the US) or launching new products (like predictions, stocks, bank cards, etc.).
Armani Ferrante emphasized that no founder, executive, team member, or venture capitalist has received direct token allocations. The entire team's allocated shares will be retained in the company's treasury and locked for at least one year after the IPO. Team members hold equity in the company, while the company holds most of the token supply, and the team can only benefit after the company is listed or an equity exit event occurs.
Users need to log in to the Backpack official website or mobile app to complete the TGE verification process. The system will automatically calculate and distribute shares based on the relative proportion of points at the time of the snapshot. Mad Lads NFT holders only need to connect their corresponding wallets to receive allocations automatically, without any additional operations. After completing this, users can see the 'TGE Verified' badge in the points—achievements section.
At present, users cannot query specific data about the airdrop. Backpack stated that specific shares and the ratio of points to token conversion will only be announced, displayed, and claimed after the TGE starts.
The point accumulation mechanism disclosed by Backpack includes multidimensional indicators such as trading volume, asset holding duration, invitations, and product usage depth. In addition, Backpack has launched a staking conversion equity mechanism, where users can stake BP for at least one year to convert it into company equity at a fixed ratio. A total of 20% of Backpack's company shares will be allocated to qualified stakers, with staking duration, amount, and platform product usage being weighted factors to determine IPO preferential allocation rights.
What is the value?
Before this airdrop, Backpack's anti-witch measures have also been continuously upgraded, requiring all accounts participating in the points activities to pass KYC (identity verification). In the early 2026 'Epilogue' phase, Backpack officials conducted an audit and identified and reclaimed over 50 million so-called 'fake points' through data analysis.
Backpack requires all eligible airdrop participants to perform a second manual confirmation before the deadline of March 15, 2026. Many scripted accounts may already be in an 'offline' or 'management vacuum' state after long-term scoring. Manual clicks within a specific window and even re-verification are required to filter out those automated accounts that 'sweep and run'. X users self-deprecatingly joked about Metabape, 'Opened an account with 270,000 points, only to find: 1000 coins.'
Backpack's 'milestone unlocking + equity conversion' model is an industry first. Additionally, Backpack has obtained licenses in the UAE, the UK, and multiple European countries, with a clear IPO path. Once the company achieves business milestones, Pre-IPO unlocking will create a positive cycle. Of course, risks also exist: failure to meet milestones may lead to temporary liquidity constraints, but this is precisely the design intention—to ensure that token releases are linked to actual value creation.
According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of the market betting on its FDV exceeding 100 million USD the day after the launch is 98%, corresponding to a coin price of 0.1 USD. The probability of exceeding 200 million USD is 87%, corresponding to a coin price of 0.2 USD, while the probability of FDV exceeding 300 million USD has significantly dropped to 44%, and the probability of exceeding 500 million USD is 11%.
Currently, market players on Polymarket predict its price range is approximately around 0.1-0.2 USD.
It is worth mentioning that the FDV range of 100 million to 200 million USD is also the publicly stated valuation range for Backpack's last round of financing.
In February 2024, Backpack completed a 17 million USD strategic Series A financing at a valuation of 120 million USD, led by Placeholder, with participation from Hashed, Robot Ventures, Amber Group, Wintermute, Jump Crypto, Delphi Digital, and others. In September 2022, Backpack completed a 20 million USD financing, led by FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto.
In February 2026, according to Axios, informed sources said that Backpack Exchange is negotiating a new round of financing, discussing raising 50 million USD at a pre-investment valuation of 1 billion USD. There is still no final result.
According to official website data, Backpack currently has an open contract of 137 million USD, with a nominal total value of managed assets around 350 million USD, and a total nominal value of loans at 330 million USD. Its total trading volume has reached 43.3 trillion USD due to airdrop expectations.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is in a deep bear phase, with Bitcoin oscillating around 70,000 USD. Some crypto projects have chosen to close down due to immense pressure. Backpack has been urged multiple times by the community to issue tokens. However, due to hacker theft and some system failures leading to compensation, its team ultimately chose to conduct the TGE at the worst market conditions.
So, after the Backpack TGE, will the market's follow-up funds choose to support or completely abandon? We will know today.