Deep summary of BTC main force trends (based on on-chain + institutional + options data, as of March 21, 2026, current price ≈ $70,700-$71,000 oscillation range): 1. Old whales (>1000 BTC long-term holders) movements: some sold off, but it is not a panic sell.
When rebounding to the $70,000-$71,000 range, multiple addresses holding >1000 BTC sold a total of over 42,000 coins (peak from March 11-13: 24,867 coins + 17,818 coins). These chips mostly came from purchases made at low points between April and July 2025, with some cutting losses (exiting with a 50% loss) and others rotating normally after precise bottom fishing.
However, the overall situation is not a one-sided exit: over the past three months, the number of addresses with 100+ BTC has increased by 753 (up 3.9%), and the holding ratio in the 10-10,000 BTC range has risen to 68.17%. There has been a continuous net outflow from exchanges (about 15,000 coins leaving CEX daily), and supply has actually tightened. This is a typical 'smart money turnover' signal, not a top. 2. Institutions/enterprises (main buyers) are strongly absorbing, clearly supporting the price. Strategy (originally MicroStrategy): On March 17, they bought 22,337 BTC in a single week (average price ≈ $70,194), with total holdings reaching 761,068 coins (accounting for about 3.6% of the entire network, worth over $54 billion, with a cost range of $66k-$75k). They are steadily buying every week through equity financing, with no selling pressure, making them the strongest 'floor' main force.
BTC Spot ETF: Cumulative net inflow exceeds $4.58 billion in March (multiple consecutive days of gains, BlackRock IBIT leading), although there was a slight outflow on the 18th-19th, the institutional dip-buying trend remains unchanged, with total historical inflow exceeding $56.5 billion.
The main force has completed the switch: old whales releasing chips → institutions + new whales (ETF, smart wallets) absorbing heavily, forming a healthy blood exchange.
3. Auxiliary signal confirmation Liquidation: $109 million across the network in the past 24 hours (long positions dominated), leverage is being cleaned.
Options: Before the quarterly expiration on March 27, traders bought a large number of put protections above $72k (defensive layout), Max Pain point ≈ $69k-70k area.
Technical aspect: Current range fluctuation support at 69,388 - resistance at 71,367, exchange reserves at historical low provide additional bottom protection.
Forecast (based on the same method): Short-term (before the March 27 options expiration): Maintain a fluctuation between $69k-$72k, with a focus on defense. Leveraged cleaning + slight selling pressure from old whales may lead to a small correction, but institutional support is hard to break below $69k. Volatility on expiration day may amplify, pay attention to ETF inflows and large whale orders.
Mid-term (April to June): bullish probability over 70%. Option layouts removed + institutional absorption completed, easy to break through $71.5k, aiming for $75k-80k.
Long-term (full year 2026): structural bull market! Institutions continue to buy + supply locked (whale addresses continue to grow, exchange reserves low), similar to the logic of 2024-2025, potential new ATH. Risk points: macro black swan or retail over-speculation, but institutional floor is very strong.
Core conclusion: Who is selling? Old whales rotating to take profits/cut losses. Who is buying? Institutional main force (Strategy + ETF) taking over! This is the healthiest "blood exchange stage" in the mid-phase of the bull market, not a precursor to a crash. Suggestion: Do not chase highs or panic sell, continuously monitor Lookonchain whale flows, Strategy weekly announcements, ETF daily inflows, changes in open contracts after 3/27. DYOR, NFA, for reference only. The bull market is still ongoing, hold patiently! #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BTC main force #On-chain data $BTC
