Many people ask me when to escape the peak???

Bitcoin has historically shown a high probability of rising in October and November, but that does not mean the bull market is about to take off again. A more likely scenario is that these two months represent the gradual transition from a bull market to a bear market.

From a macro perspective, if Japan raises interest rates at the end of October, it would almost mean that the market has declared an end early, and we may officially enter a bear market in early November, necessitating early positioning for short trades, which should at least drop to mid to late December, waiting for funds to come back for a final push before Christmas. If the rate hike is delayed until December 19, then November will be the last wave of the market, peaking and reducing positions, and then just look to short in December.

Historical patterns are also very clear: the peak is usually seen in mid-November, followed by a rapid turnaround. A prudent approach is to be half a beat ahead of the market, clearing positions a week in advance; otherwise, even if you are not trapped, the time cost will still wear you down. When the market generally begins to expect a rise in interest rates, it's time to start selling in batches.