The global capital market accelerates towards what may be the largest liquidity event in history. In mid-2026, SpaceX — the crown jewel of Elon Musk — goes public aiming for $50 billion in fundraising, under a valuation of $1.75 trillion.

SpaceX has transcended the era of space startups. Today, it is essential infrastructure, with orbital keys in hand.

  • Starlink as a driver: Represents 2/3 of total revenue.

  • Explosive growth: 9.2 million subscribers, heading towards 10 million.

  • Launch monopoly: 95% of the orbits in the USA in 2024.

The Ghost of SolarCity, xAI Devours Free Cash

Alarm sounds with the SpaceX-xAI merger. Musk repeats the SolarCity script — rescued by Tesla from bankrupt cousins — now on a galactic scale.

He bought Twitter for US$ 44 billion, privatized it, and injected it into xAI. Now, SpaceX absorbs AI in exchange for shares: valuation of US$ 250 billion for one that burns US$ 1 billion a month. Co-founders flee; Musk admits "reconstruction" necessary.

Result? Free cash flow of US$ 5 billion turns to dust against annual losses of US$ 12 billion from xAI. Profitable yesterday, hostage to external capital today.

Unsustainable Mathematics: 100x Revenue, Zero Gravity

Projected revenue of US$ 16 billion in 2025. IPO valuation? US$ 1.75 trillion — Price/Sales multiple above 100x. Jumps from US$ 1.25 trillion (February 2026). Palantir, criticized by Burry, seems cheap in comparison.

Moon Before Mars, Mobile Walkways

Master in realigning goals, Musk swaps Mars (decades-long dream) for a self-sustaining lunar city in 10 years. Justification: lunar windows every 10 days, two-day trip — against 26 months to Mars.

Skeptical sees distraction: Mars is insurmountable now. Moon renews hype for IPO, postpones the impossible.

Nasdaq Rewritten, The 'Synthetic Squeeze' of Insiders

Worst threat: Nasdaq alters rules for SpaceX, via investor George Noble — "structural manipulation".

  • Express entry: Nasdaq 100 in 15 days post-IPO, without liquidity tests.

  • Inflated float 5x: 5% public counts as 25% in the index.

Real float: US$ 87.5 billion. Index forces QQQ and ETFs to buy as if they were US$ 437 billion. Artificial demand explodes prices; retail and pensions become an "exit" for the 95% insiders.

SpaceX is pure engineering, but this IPO smells like a risky financial experiment.

It's just an exercise in futurology — nothing to take seriously. Think from other angles, step outside the box, and explore the unexpected.