The Fed's 50 basis point hopes are dashed, but investment banks have a different view

1. Market review: Last Friday night, after the release of the non-farm payrolls report, which was not strong enough, the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March have somewhat cooled down. The U.S. dollar index continued to dive, almost falling below the 104 mark at one point, closing down 0.59%. , reported 104.63.

2. Key indicators: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen from the 4% mark and fell below the 50% retracement of the recent rally. In theory, there is a possibility of a further retracement of 3.6% from 61.8%. It is worth noting that the 200-day moving average is supported near 3.5%, and yields have stabilized and rebounded twice at this level since this year. However, if panic over the Silicon Valley Bank incident continues to simmer, it cannot be ruled out that there is still room for downside in U.S. bond yields in the short term.

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