As the war cools, oil prices retreat, and US stocks rebound, where will Bitcoin head this time?
Written by: ChandlerZ, Foresight News
On March 16, Bitcoin touched $76,000 during trading, achieving an eight-day winning streak and reaching a six-week high, with a 24-hour gain of nearly 4%. This price level is close to a significant resistance range since late January. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, Bitcoin has accumulated a nearly 20% increase, while gold has declined by about 3%, and the S&P 500 has dropped by about 2%, with Bitcoin's relative performance outperforming almost all mainstream assets.
In terms of liquidation data, according to Coinglass, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours was $610 million, with short liquidations amounting to $485 million. Data from Alternative.me shows that the market has shifted from 'extreme fear' to 'fear', with today's cryptocurrency fear and greed index rising to 28 (yesterday's index was 23, indicating 'extreme fear').
On March 16, all three major indices closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 387.94 points, closing at 46,946 points, with a gain of 0.83%; the S&P 500 rose 1.01% to 6,699 points; the Nasdaq rose 1.22% to close at 22,374 points. The improvement in market sentiment is mainly due to the easing of geopolitical risks; US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on CNBC that the US is allowing Iranian tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first successful passage since the outbreak of the conflict.
WTI crude oil futures traded within a range of $92.93 to $94.17 per barrel, while Brent crude opened at $105.26 per barrel. Previously, the market was concerned that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt about 20% of global oil transport, causing oil prices to spike to a three-year high. As expectations for easing tensions rise, the momentum in crude oil has been restrained.
Due to the strengthening of the US dollar, spot gold has retreated to about $5,010 per ounce, pulling back from recent highs. Silver followed the adjustment in the precious metals sector. The divergence between gold and Bitcoin is noteworthy; both have been purchased as safe-haven assets since the war began, but Bitcoin's performance has started to outperform gold.
Three logics driving Bitcoin upward
First, easing geopolitical risks have released risk appetite. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has been the biggest suppressing variable in the market over the past three weeks. High oil prices mean rising inflation expectations, which are extremely unfavorable for liquidity-sensitive assets. With the signal of the reopening of the strait channel, the market has begun to reprice.
Second, Bitcoin is playing the role of a non-USD safe-haven asset. During this round of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin did not decline alongside the stock market, but rather strengthened contrary to the trend. Reports from Fortune magazine indicate that since the war began, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, stocks, and all other mainstream safe assets. This contrasts with Bitcoin's performance at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, where it fell in tandem with the market, reflecting a changing perception of Bitcoin's attributes.
Third, the options structure is creating a magnetic effect around $75,000. Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that there is approximately $180 million in Long Gamma exposure around $74,000 for options expiring on March 20, and the hedging actions of market makers will suppress volatility, causing prices to tend to oscillate within that range, objectively creating resistance.
However, after March 20, the structure of the next major expiration date of March 27 has shown significant changes. The $75,000 strike price has accumulated an open interest of 9,685 BTC in Call options, with only 2,711 in Put options, indicating a clear dominance of Calls. More importantly, from February 28 to March 14, the net premium for Calls at this strike price surged from $5.8 million to $19.8 million, while Bitcoin was still in the range of $66,000 to $68,000, indicating that funds were positioning for a bullish outlook at lower levels.
From the perspective of Gamma risk exposure, there is approximately -$2.56 billion in Short Gamma structure near $75,000. In a Short Gamma environment, the closer the price gets to that strike price, the faster the Delta changes for market makers, forcing them to continuously adjust their hedges in the direction of the price, buying during upward trends, resulting in a typical 'Gamma magnetic effect'.
Above, the $80,000 level corresponds to a Long Gamma exposure of $420 million, at which point the hedging direction of market makers will change, volatility will be suppressed, creating strong resistance; below, around $65,000 to $67,000, there is $390 million in Long Gamma providing a buffer, but that area has significantly weaker open interest compared to $75,000 and $80,000, serving as a buffer zone rather than strong support.
FOMC has become the largest uncertain variable
The Federal Reserve's meeting this week has encountered a dilemma, which may be the most direct stress test that Bitcoin faces in the near term. CME FedWatch data shows that the market expects a probability of over 99% for maintaining interest rates unchanged (3.50%-3.75%).
Historically, Bitcoin has fallen 7 times after 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, with an average decline of 14%. There was only one instance of a brief increase following a meeting. In January 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, and Bitcoin fell from $90,400, eventually rebounding only after breaking below $60,000.
However, this policy environment is more complex than before. Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel, bringing inflationary pressures back; February's non-farm employment was unexpectedly weak, putting pressure on the labor market outlook. The two major goals send conflicting signals, sharply narrowing the space for monetary policy.
For Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, this will be his second-to-last meeting before his term ends in May. The next interest rate adjustment may not occur until Kevin Warsh, the candidate nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve, officially takes over. He also faces special political pressure, as a federal judge last week rejected a subpoena issued by the Department of Justice to the Federal Reserve, but prosecutors have announced an appeal, which may interfere with the confirmation process for Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh. Powell's term is set to expire in May, but court documents reveal he has stated that he cannot resign while a criminal investigation is pending.
For Bitcoin, if Powell can convey confidence about inflation trends or hint at a rate cut window within the year during the press conference, it would be the most bullish scenario; however, if he reiterates a hawkish stance or uses ambiguous language under political pressure, the risk of a short-term pullback will also significantly increase.