$BTC correction BTCUSDT — Current price: $73,820.40
📊 WEEKLY TF (1W) — GLOBAL CONTEXT:
ATH: ~$108,000 (November 2024), current level in the resistance zone
Global structure: Uptrend since 2022, possible correction phase
Current position: Testing the key resistance zone $73K-$75K
📊 DAILY TF (1D) — MEDIUM-TERM STRUCTURE:
Impulse growth from ~$65,500 to current levels
The structure looks like the completion of a 5-wave upward movement
Possible formation of a local top around $74,500-$75,000
📍 HOURLY TF (4H) — WORKING ANALYSIS:
Clear impulse from $65,580 with signs of completion:
- Wave 1: $65,580 → $69,500
- Wave 2: $69,500 → $67,800 (38.2% correction)
- Wave 3: $67,800 → $72,600 (extended, 1.618 of W1)
- Wave 4: $72,600 → $70,000 (36% correction)
- Wave 5: $70,000 → $73,820 (current position)
✅ CHECK OF RULES:
- Overlap absent ✓
- W3 the longest ✓
- W2 and W4 alternate in depth ✓
- W5 approaches the target 100% of W1 = $74,000
🎯 LIQUIDITY ZONES:
• Above $74,500 — short traders' stops, possible stop hunt
• Below $70,000 — long traders' stops from wave 4
📏 FIBONACCI:
• W5 target 100% of W1: $74,000 (almost reached)
• W5 target 61.8% of W1: $72,400 (passed)
• Resistance cluster: $73,800-$74,500
📍 MARKET STRUCTURE:
• Trend: Short-term bullish, but signs of exhaustion
• Zone: Premium (upper 50% of the range)
• MACD: Divergence at the highs (bearish signal)
📍 ENTRY CALCULATOR:
SHORT SCENARIO (main):
Entry zone: $74,200 - $74,800 (completion of W5)
• Limit 1: $74,200 (25%)
• Limit 2: $74,400 (25%)
• Limit 3: $74,600 (25%)
• Limit 4: $74,800 (25%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $75,200 (-1.1%)
🎯 TP1: $72,000 (R/R 1:3.0)
🎯 TP2: $70,000 (R/R 1:5.7)
🎯 TP3: $67,800 (R/R 1:8.6)
❌ INVALIDATION:
Upon breaking $75,200, the impulse may continue to $76,500
⚠️ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS:
1) Completion of the impulse + correction — 65%
2) Expansion of W5 to $76,000-$77,000 — 25%
3) Formation of a diagonal upwards — 10%
💡 CONCLUSION:
The impulse from $65,580 is nearing completion. W5 reaches the calculated target of $74,000. MACD shows divergence. I recommend shorting from the zone $74,200-$74,800 with correction targets to $70,000-$67,800. A minimum correction is expected at 38.2% = $70,600.$BTC $BTC