Technical Analysis: After bouncing back to 65500 this week, it's clearly retraced to the critical level around 74000, and it's also very evident that it's facing resistance again. The resistance here remains quite significant, but that's normal since this is one of the key resistance points we've mentioned multiple times at the weekly level. Until we reclaim 74000, we can only view this as a large range-bound consolidation.

Currently, although the short-term spike at 72250 was a false break that dropped back down, we can still see that a small bullish candlestick was formed earlier. There's a chance to challenge 72250 again, but it's worth noting that tomorrow the US stock market opens. I believe if we don’t see at least a larger bullish candle closing before today’s close, and at least within the range of 72250 to 74000, then we need to be very cautious about a potential reversal or a larger bearish candle at 72250. Next week could see a retracement pattern.

News-wise: The focus remains on the US-Iran conflict, with oil prices continuing to surge before the close. Even though this week saw the IEA releasing 400 million barrels and the US 172 million barrels from its reserves, as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, this is just buying some weeks of time. After all, the daily transport loss here is 18 million barrels, so even a few random attacks on vessels can make tankers hesitant to pass through.

It's evident that while Iran claims to allow 'any country except the US and Israel' to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is actively communicating with other countries to ensure protection. However, there are still plenty of ships stuck, unwilling to pass.

On another note, Trump's stance against Iran having nuclear capabilities is pretty firm. I doubt he'll back off before achieving this goal, but with the pressure from his visit to China at the end of March and the midterm election polls and forecasts, time is tight. Let's see what tricks Trump has up his sleeve next.

Data-wise: (Chart 3) Over 100 big whales sold -176 yesterday and -192 today, with a total of +546 this week. Other than the 11th and 12th, which saw some significant buying before that big spike over $3,000 on Friday, the rest of the week has mostly been small sell-offs or complete silence.

ETH: Right now, we need to watch how Bitcoin behaves around 72,250. If it can recover and the ETH weekly close is above 2,086, then there’s a chance for ETH to bounce up alongside BTC. There’s not much else to focus on, just keep an eye on BTC.

Additionally, the total amount held by ETH whales (10,000~100,000) hasn't really changed much. It's pretty much the same as the last few weeks.

Conclusion: Recently, after the bounce, quite a few friends have asked me if not joining at 60k means it's too late. My take is this is just a small rebound, not even a daily-level bounce. It's too early to say 60k is the bottom. Even if the weekly K-line breaks above 74,000, it won't end this major downtrend. It just means there's a chance for a bigger rebound. There's no need to panic when it dips or worry about missing out on a rebound. You need to avoid that rhythm; there are plenty of opportunities.

The 72,250~74,000 range will be a potential reversal zone. Until we break above that, especially as we approach 74,000, it’s not a time to go long. It could just be a consolidation between 74,000 and 60,000, and a three-wave drop to the previous low of 60,000 or even lower could happen. Only once we break above 74,000 will that probability start to decrease, so when we’re near these critical levels, it's important to stay patient.