1. Mainnet and Project Progress (The impact is quite complex)
To put it simply: the price of NIGHT is closely tied to the project's roadmap. The most important thing recently is the Kūkolu phase, with plans to launch a stable alliance mainnet Lozza by the end of March 2026, capable of supporting the first batch of privacy-focused decentralized applications.
Later, there will be incentive testnets and cross-chain functionalities, which are tangible value enhancements in the medium term.
Impact:
If the mainnet launches on time and smoothly, it will prove the technology is reliable, attracting developers and users, making the price likely to rise.
However, this project is still in its early stages. If there are delays, bugs, or if no one uses the dApp, market confidence will collapse, and the price will drop.
2. Being listed on major exchanges, how is the liquidity (overall bullish sentiment)
NIGHT is already listed on top exchanges like Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Kraken; especially being on Binance is a significant breakthrough for Cardano-related projects, and liquidity has noticeably improved.
But there's one issue:
After the news broke, the price surged about 10%, but the trading volume actually dropped by more than half, indicating that there aren’t many buyers; the rally feels weak.
Impact:
Getting listed on major exchanges is definitely a good thing in the long run, making it easier for capital to flow in.
But with short-term volume and price not aligning, if buying weakens, the price can easily drop back down.
3. Token unlocks and selling pressure are substantial (bearish sentiment)
Previously, a huge airdrop of NIGHT was distributed, 4.55 billion tokens, unlocking gradually over 360 days and four quarters.
The first batch unlocks from December 2025 to March 2026, with tokens continuously entering the market.
Those who got the airdrop have almost zero cost basis, and they’re eager to sell at even the slightest uptick.
Previously, the price plummeted nearly 90% from its peak, largely due to the insane dumping during the unlock phase.
Impact:
The biggest pressure in the medium term is the ongoing sell pressure; someone is constantly dumping, making it tough to pump the price.
Summary
NIGHT is currently in a contradictory position:
The project's outlook, tech, and mainnet expectations are pretty solid, but the token unlock selling pressure is massive.
The next three months are crucial.
If the mainnet truly succeeds, it could attract new funds and users, potentially catching the sell-off;
However, if the mainnet underperforms expectations and tokens keep unlocking and dumping, the price pressure will be enormous.
Right now, the core issue is just one:
Can the Kūkolu mainnet attract enough buying pressure to absorb the continuous selling?
This will determine whether we see a pump or a dump next; volatility will be extreme.
#night $NIGHT @MidnightNetwork
