I’m still in the same swing short from 72.8K. I’ve adjusted the SL to 75K after taking 25% TP at 68.2K. Essentially, I’m risking the remaining position for break-even, as the 25% TP already taken covers the potential loss if price hits the stop.
If I do get stopped at 75K, the profit from the 68.2K TP will offset the drawdown, meaning the overall position closes around BE.
I was slightly wrong about the retest, the move up is steeper than expected. I guess taunting CZ wasn’t the smartest idea 😂
If my position gets stopped out, my plan is to rebuild shorts between 75K and 79K using fractionalized entries, with a hard stop loss (HSL) at 84K.
My thesis hasn’t changed: I still expect the downtrend to continue, and 84K would invalidate the HTF market structure. The real question is how high they push price before the next move down begins. The reason I am not aiming for the "perfect" short entry is simple:
In bear markets, perfect entries are rare. I’d rather be slightly early and catch the move than be late and miss it entirely, especially when the confluence is there and everything else checks out.
It’s also important to understand that in trading, sometimes need to burn one or two entries before catching the real move. That’s not stubbornness, it’s simply sticking to a well defined thesis.
Nothing in the broader outlook has changed; only the LTF schematic structure has shifted. We’re still trading within a range environment, where deviations and liquidity hunts are common.
As I’ve mentioned before, the market won’t always follow the exact same structure every time. That’s why it’s important to stay flexible and remain open to alternative scenarios while still respecting the overall thesis.
If I do get stopped at 75K, the profit from the 68.2K TP will offset the drawdown, meaning the overall position closes around BE.
I was slightly wrong about the retest, the move up is steeper than expected. I guess taunting CZ wasn’t the smartest idea 😂
If my position gets stopped out, my plan is to rebuild shorts between 75K and 79K using fractionalized entries, with a hard stop loss (HSL) at 84K.
My thesis hasn’t changed: I still expect the downtrend to continue, and 84K would invalidate the HTF market structure. The real question is how high they push price before the next move down begins. The reason I am not aiming for the "perfect" short entry is simple:
In bear markets, perfect entries are rare. I’d rather be slightly early and catch the move than be late and miss it entirely, especially when the confluence is there and everything else checks out.
It’s also important to understand that in trading, sometimes need to burn one or two entries before catching the real move. That’s not stubbornness, it’s simply sticking to a well defined thesis.
Nothing in the broader outlook has changed; only the LTF schematic structure has shifted. We’re still trading within a range environment, where deviations and liquidity hunts are common.
As I’ve mentioned before, the market won’t always follow the exact same structure every time. That’s why it’s important to stay flexible and remain open to alternative scenarios while still respecting the overall thesis.
