In early March 2026, two pieces of news appeared almost simultaneously on the headlines of tech media. One was that Circle and Stripe were competing to build stablecoin infrastructure for AI agent payment systems, while the other reported that USDC processed $1.26 trillion in transactions in February, accounting for 70% of total stablecoin activity. The headline from Yahoo Finance highlighted the connection between these two events: stablecoin companies are betting that AI agents will become the next trillion-dollar payment market.
This judgment is not unfounded. When OpenAI defined 2026 as the 'Year of Personal Agents' and when the founder of NEAR predicted that AI agents would become the primary users of blockchain, a fundamental question arose: when billions of AI agents begin to trade autonomously on the chain, what will they use to pay? Traditional credit card networks cannot open accounts for machines, the SWIFT system cannot handle microtransactions, and banks do not serve algorithms. Meanwhile, stablecoins—an asset class once seen as a trading tool in the crypto market—are becoming the only answer.
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire provided his prediction during a financial report conference call: stablecoins could become the 'local currency for machine-to-machine commerce'. This judgement redefines stablecoins from being a 'safe haven for cryptocurrencies' to the 'base currency of the digital economy'. Meanwhile, the x402 payment feature launched by Stripe on the Base chain has already allowed developers to charge AI agents directly using USDC, and data shows that over 98% of such transactions are indeed settled using stablecoins.
As AI agents start to 'spend money', the 'money' they choose is reshaping our understanding of currency. The significance of this transformation goes far beyond mere technological payment innovation.
One, AI agents do not have bank accounts; what do they use to pay?
Understanding why AI agents need stablecoins first requires answering one question: What do AI agents use to pay when purchasing services from another AI agent?
Banks do not open accounts for AI, credit cards are not designed for algorithms, and the SWIFT network cannot handle microtransactions between machines. The traditional financial payment system has been designed from its inception to serve 'people'—it requires identity verification, credit assessment, and manual authorization, which are either unattainable or prohibitively costly for AI agents.
Animoca Brands Chairman Yat Siu bluntly said in a sharing session at the end of February: 'The currency and transaction systems of agents will shift to on-chain, replacing traditional credit cards, adopting stablecoins or tokenized assets. These assets will have verifiability, instant settlement, and machine readability, enabling seamless and efficient transactions between agents.'
This statement points out the core of the issue. AI agents need not just 'money', but a programmable, real-time settlement, low-friction payment interface. Stablecoins precisely meet these needs: they operate on the blockchain, enabling 24/7 instant transfers; they are programmable, allowing payment conditions to be automatically executed via smart contracts; they are price-stable, preventing asset devaluation of AI agents during task execution due to market fluctuations.
Illia Polosukhin, co-founder of the NEAR protocol, painted a broader picture in an interview in early March: 'The users of blockchain will be AI agents. AI will be at the front end, while blockchain will exist as the back end. The goal is to hide the entire blockchain from your AI—having the fact that we have a blockchain explorer is actually a failure because we haven't abstracted this technology.'
In his vision, future AI agents will interact directly with blockchain protocols, autonomously completing payments, managing assets, and coordinating services. Humans will only need to converse with AI, telling it 'help me book a flight' or 'vote on that proposal', while the rest of the work will be completed by the agent on-chain. The entire process will be imperceptible to humans, but every value transfer will occur on-chain, using stablecoins as the settlement medium.
This is not science fiction. The x402 payment feature launched by Stripe on the Base chain in February has already allowed developers to charge AI agents directly using USDC. According to data from Dune Analytics, as of early March, the transaction volume of the x402 protocol on EVM chains was approximately $25.81 million, with 98.6% of transactions settled in USDC. The situation is similar on the Solana chain, where USDC transactions account for as much as 99.7%. This means that in the AI agent payment scenarios that have already occurred, stablecoins have almost become the only choice.
Two, from $18 trillion to licensing implementation, the evolution path of stablecoins
If the demand from AI agents opens up future imagination for stablecoins, then the evolution of market size and regulatory landscape provides realistic support for this imagination.
First, let's look at a set of data. According to statistics from Artemis and DeFiLlama, in February 2026, the on-chain stablecoin transfer volume reached a record $18 trillion, an increase of 22% from $14.7 trillion in December 2025. What does this number mean? It is equivalent to approximately 1.8% of the global GDP, exceeding the total annual economic output of most countries. Among them, USDC performed particularly well, with a monthly transfer transaction volume of about $558 billion, accounting for 31%, a significant increase from 24% a year ago. Analysts attribute this change to the clear preference of institutional participants for compliant dollar infrastructure.
Circle's own data also corroborates this trend. In 2025, Circle's revenue reached $2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%. Bernstein gave Circle an 'outperform' rating in a recent research report, with a target price of $190, calling it a long-term winner in its field. Circle used USDC to complete $68 million in cross-account settlements among eight internal entities in just 30 minutes, whereas the same operation via traditional bank wire transfers would take 1 to 3 days. CEO Jeremy Allaire revealed that this process completed about 90% of the company's internal transfer settlements in a single day.
Looking at the regulatory level, in March 2026, the three major global economies almost simultaneously released key signals.
In Hong Kong, Financial Secretary Paul Chan clearly stated at the end of February that Hong Kong has implemented a licensing system for fiat stablecoin issuers, with the first batch of licenses to be issued in March. According to reporters from Financial Associated Press, HSBC, Standard Chartered, and local virtual asset trading platform OSL are rumored to be among them. Although the relevant institutions have not responded directly, an insider from one foreign bank revealed that they are 'still waiting for formal news from regulators.' According to the (Stablecoin Regulations) released in 2025, Hong Kong stablecoin issuers must operate with a license, and stablecoins must have 1:1 backing by high-quality reserve assets and disclose information regularly. This means that stablecoins officially enter Hong Kong's regulated financial system.
In the United States, the OCC proposed a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, providing a legal basis for the compliant issuance and circulation of stablecoins at the federal level. The EU's MiCA Act has long established a clear regulatory path for stablecoins. The simultaneous construction of regulatory frameworks by the three major economies marks the arrival of a turning point where stablecoins move from the 'gray zone' to 'institutionalized operations'.
The changing competitive relationship between Circle and Stripe reflects the impact of institutionalization. For a long time, Circle was responsible for 'producing money'—mapping real-world dollars onto the blockchain to mint USDC; Stripe was responsible for 'making money move'—integrating stablecoins into real business scenarios through a global payment network. Their roles were clearly defined and complementary. However, as the stablecoin market evolves from a crypto tool to financial infrastructure, this balance is being disrupted. Circle has begun to extend upstream, launching the Arc L1 blockchain, the Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP), and the Circle Payments Network, trying to build a complete stablecoin payment network; Stripe is penetrating downstream, acquiring Bridge for $1.1 billion, co-developing the Tempo L1 settlement chain with Paradigm, and directly entering the AI agent payment scenario through the x402 feature.
When stablecoins become infrastructure, whoever controls the flow of funds can define the rules. The competition between Circle and Stripe precisely reflects this logic.
Three, two loops and one heart, how stablecoins connect the digital world and the real world
If we use a metaphor to understand the role of stablecoins in digital civilization, the 'blood system' may be appropriate. It has two circulations: one is the 'internal circulation' within the digital world, and the other is the 'external circulation' connecting the virtual and real economies.
The picture of internal circulation is taking shape. According to data from RWA.xyz, as of March 2026, the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, has exceeded $25 billion, growing nearly four times from about $6.4 billion a year earlier. The six major asset categories—US Treasury bonds, commodities, private credit, institutional alternative investment funds, corporate bonds, and non-US government debt—have all surpassed $1 billion on-chain. The issuance, trading, and settlement of these RWAs heavily rely on stablecoins as a medium of value. Meanwhile, the rise of the AI agent economy is creating new demands. According to data from x402scan.com, as of early March, the global x402 ecosystem has surpassed 163 million transactions, with over 435,000 buyer AI agents and over 90,000 seller AI agents. On a social platform for AI agents called Moltbook, the number of AI agents has approached 2.85 million, nearly 2.4 times the 1.2 million at launch a week prior. These AI agents provide services and exchange value with each other, and stablecoins are the most commonly used settlement tool among them.
The logic of the external circulation is equally clear. Stablecoins attract external fiat funds into the digital world through compliant issuance and redemption. For example, in the case of the stablecoin licenses to be issued in Hong Kong, the stablecoins issued by licensed institutions must meet the 1:1 reserve requirement, meaning there is one dollar or one Hong Kong dollar of asset backing each stablecoin. When investors purchase stablecoins with fiat currency, the funds enter the digital world; when they redeem stablecoins back into fiat currency, the funds flow back into the real economy. In this process, stablecoins play the role of a 'converter', allowing funds to flow freely between the virtual and real.
The tokenization of RWA further reinforces this cycle. When a company tokenizes accounts receivable or property assets and issues them on-chain, investors subscribe using stablecoins. After the company obtains stablecoins, it exchanges them for fiat currency for operations—this funding completes a full flow from physical to digital and back to physical. JPMorgan processes billions of dollars in tokenized collateral repurchase transactions through the Kinexys platform, BlackRock has launched the tokenized fund BUILD on Ethereum, and Franklin Templeton has migrated the US government money market fund FOBXX to the Solana public chain—these moves by traditional financial giants are essentially building a pipeline for stablecoins to connect the virtual and real economies.
Four, visible trends, invisible risks
Any technological change comes with both opportunities and risks, and the evolution of stablecoins is no exception.
First, let's talk about boundaries. In Mainland China, according to the joint announcement of eight departments in Document No. 42, 'it is strictly forbidden' to carry out RWA tokenization and related services, and overseas businesses must comply with filing requirements. This means that the stablecoin application scenarios discussed in this article all occur under overseas compliance frameworks and do not constitute any guidance or advice for operations within the country. For Mainland Chinese companies and investors, it is necessary to pay attention to global trends and understand technological logic, but any cross-border business must be cautiously advanced within regulatory red lines.
Challenges should not be overlooked either. Security risks are the primary concern—whether the reserve assets held by stablecoin issuers are transparent, whether there are vulnerabilities in smart contracts, and whether cross-chain bridges are secure, these issues directly relate to fund safety. Compliance risk follows closely— the global regulatory landscape remains fragmented; a stablecoin that is compliant in one jurisdiction may face restrictions or even bans in another. Market risks also exist—despite stablecoins being named 'stable', there have been instances of de-pegging historically, and in extreme cases, liquidity exhaustion could lead to redemption difficulties.
So, what do these trends mean for different types of decision-makers?
For executives in financial institutions, stablecoins are reshaping the underlying logic of cross-border payments, cash management, and future commercial settlements. The issuance of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is a window worth paying attention to: the compliance practices of licensed institutions, the ways they connect with the traditional financial system, and the actual efficiency of cross-border fund flows will all provide references for the future strategic layout of financial institutions.
For strategic decision-makers in technology companies, the integration of AI agents and stablecoins may become the next competitive track. If your company is developing AI agent products, have you reserved a stablecoin payment interface? When agents pay fees to third-party service providers, do you support automated, low-cost on-chain settlement? These questions may become competitive barriers for products in the next year or two.
For investors, the strategic value of stablecoin infrastructure providers needs to be reassessed. Circle, Stripe, and financial institutions deeply involved in the compliance ecosystem are becoming key builders of the digital civilization's 'blood system'. Meanwhile, risk identification is equally important—the compliance risks from global regulatory fragmentation, operational risks from technological security, and profitability risks from market competition all need to be incorporated into the investment decision-making framework.
In March 2026, when the OpenClaw developers wrote in their update log, 'We fixed more problems than we created, and that’s progress,' they may not have realized that this statement also applies to the evolution of digital civilization as a whole. The evolution of stablecoins from a trading tool in the crypto market, to the 'local currency' of AI agents, and then to the bloodstream connecting the virtual and real economies, has been accompanied by problem-solving and boundary exploration at every step. This process is far from over, but the direction is clear— in the era where AI agents begin to 'spend money', stablecoins are becoming their most handy tools and are also becoming an indispensable infrastructure of digital civilization.
When your company begins to deploy AI agents, are you ready to open 'bank accounts' for them?
(Data in this article is sourced from Financial Associated Press, RWA.xyz, Artemis, DeFiLlama, Dune Analytics, x402scan.com, data as of March 12, 2026. This article does not constitute any investment advice, and the mentioned overseas cases are not applicable to the regulatory framework in Mainland China.)