Every time the market crashes, you can see mockery of Michael Saylor online. Some lightly joke that he won't time the market at low prices, while others say that Strategy is about to explode.
Let's try to summarize what Strategy is doing with our own understanding; perhaps we can give Michael Saylor a bit more understanding and respect.
In the context of the bull market, the operational scenario of Strategy: low-cost financing through issuing stocks and bonds → buying Bitcoin → Bitcoin rises → the company's net assets and stock price rise → refinancing to buy more Bitcoin, forming a positive feedback loop.
Scenario transition for Strategy in a bear market: Bitcoin drops → company net asset and stock price drop → shifts to primary issuance of preferred stocks for financing → continues to buy Bitcoin → waits for the bull market return.
Favorable factors in Strategy's bear market scenario: when mNAV (modified Net Asset Value, i.e., the company's market value adjusted against its Bitcoin holdings) is below 1, it often attracts buying power in the market, providing support for MSTR's stock price.
Strategy's bear market financing tool: STRC, is a perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy, with a face value of $100, paying a monthly dividend (currently about 11.5%). It maintains a soft peg around $100 through a dividend adjustment mechanism (adjusting up or down by 0.25% monthly based on trading price) and ATM issuance (issuing new shares when above par value to buy Bitcoin). Dividends are funded by selling MSTR common stock (when at a premium, mNAV greater than 1), with STRC holders prioritized over common stockholders in liquidation, but without direct claims on Bitcoin.
Flywheel effect: STRC's high interest, during the rate cut cycle there is significant demand → STRC price rises → Strategy issues more STRC → uses proceeds to buy Bitcoin → strengthens the treasury → supports more issuance and dividends.
As mentioned earlier, when mNAV is less than 1, buying MSTR to invest in BTC is at a discount, so market funds typically can support MSTR's premium recovery, allowing for continuous issuance of STRC without needing to sell the company's held BTC.
Historical precedent: When mNAV briefly fell below 1 in 2025, the market viewed it as a buy signal rather than panic selling. Company CEO Phong Le indicated that during mNAV downturns, it may be necessary to sell Bitcoin to pay dividends, but this did not deter arbitrage funds from flowing in, as many bet that the company would not easily sell its coins or could maintain through other means (like more preferred stock issuance).
In the first two months of 2026, Strategy has invested about $4.3B through STRC issuance, purchasing about 48,000 Bitcoins, far exceeding the total for 2022 (only $300M for 8,000 coins).
History of Strategy's mNAV
2021–2024 (Bull market dominance period): mNAV remains high over the long term, often >2x, with some months even higher. Average significantly above 1x, the market gives substantial leverage/BTC amplified exposure premium.
Late 2024 to early 2025 (peak period): When Bitcoin surged, mNAV reached very high levels (like close to or exceeding 2.5x–3x), allowing Strategy to quickly accumulate BTC through massive stock/preferred stock issuance.
Mid to late 2025 (pullback compression period): As Bitcoin retreats from its peak (for example, from ~$126k down to the $80k+ range), mNAV compresses significantly. By around November 2025, it approached 1x, with stocks dropping over 60% from their peak, and at certain times even showing brief discounts (<1x).
End of 2025 – early 2026: mNAV fluctuates in the range of 1.2x–1.5x, occasionally rising to around 1.22x, but overall significantly lower than peak levels.
History of STRC issuance
IPO issuance on July 29, 2025: Initial issuance of 28,011,111 shares (priced at $90/share, raising about $2.521B gross, used to buy ~21k BTC). This marks the starting point for STRC, with ticker 'STRC' post-listing.
July–December 2025 (early ATM phase): Gradual issuance through the ATM program.
By the end of 2025, STRC's scale has grown to about $3.4B notional (corresponding to around 34M shares, assuming trading close to $100 par).
Q4 2025 ATM fundraising of approximately $157.6M (some additional issuance).
Early 2026 – March (accelerated issuance period): As Bitcoin adjusts and the company increases preferred stock financing, STRC ATM issuance accelerates. Around a week before March 2026: multiple small issuances (like 71,590 shares for $204M BTC purchase).
March 2–8, 2026: Single issuance of 3,776,205 STRC shares (raising ~$377.1M net), used to partially fund the purchase of 17,994 BTC (STRC contributed about 30%).
March 10, 2026: Record single-day issuance of about 2.4M shares (corresponding to ~$300M trading volume/fundraising), used to purchase ~1,420 BTC.
During this period, STRC becomes a major source of funding, with remaining ATM capacity still about $3.158B (as of March 8, 2026).
Back to the beginning.
Does Michael not time the market for low prices? Not necessarily, because during this current market downturn, he still has ways to raise plenty of bullets. Perhaps in the process of building a bottom, he is a major player.
Will Strategy crash? Not in a bull market. In a bear market, with the financing from STRC, the market's support for mNAV, and most importantly, all the funds that believe in BTC, they collectively protect Strategy.
Strategy is indeed heavily promoting BTC. If you think he's undermining the decentralization concept, then move your coins to a wallet, treat him as a fellow traveler; he's just a paranoid hoarder. If you don't buy, he'll buy it all up.