First off, I don't think the U.S. has a master plan with some grand strategy. Their policies lack consistency, as we can see from the flip-flopping between Biden and Trump—no need to elaborate on that. I’ve never bought into conspiracy theories about the Rothschilds or the Freemasons controlling the world; they’re just a bunch of relics from the past. Just like the powerful clans from the Wei and Jin dynasties, they’ve faded into the dust of history.
Second, no matter how divided the two parties are, or how wild Trump's ideas get, containing China is a consensus shared by both sides. This is the strongest point of agreement between them. There’s no doubt about it—whether it's the Democrats' global strategy or MAGA’s isolationism, that part won’t change.
Third, regardless of how much Trump flip-flops, using economic and technological measures to contain China remains a common strategy of both parties. Whether it's imposing tariffs, banning TikTok, taking over ports, or restricting chip exports, for the past decade, no matter which party is in charge, these measures have been consistent and continuously escalating.
Regarding the U.S.-China situation, no need for fluff, just a few points:
First, the lifeline of China's economic development has already been grasped tightly.
Looking calmly at the economic downturn domestically since the pandemic, while there are many endogenous reasons—such as real estate, local debts, and policies affecting private enterprises—the core point is that the U.S. has effectively surrounded and contained China's economy. As a radical and rational patriot, I never believe we have won the trade and tech wars; we are merely holding on and haven't collapsed yet. Those who constantly sing China's demise are undoubtedly enemies and traitors; those who shout that we are winning are equally valueless.
These days, China is essentially a producer, while the U.S. is a consumer. When a producer and a consumer go to war over trade, there's no winning for either side. It's like the relationship between the client and the contractor; the client has a thousand ways to keep the contractor in check. The consumer can simply stop buying or buy less of your stuff. Sure, this will lead to price hikes and inflation on our end, but if we can hold out, we can definitely impede or even damage your economic growth. Plus, the dollar is still the world's currency, and the U.S. remains the master of financial hegemony. Although raising interest rates on the dollar may hurt both sides, it draws international capital back to the U.S., draining China's capital supply, which will greatly stifle China's economic development. I chatted with a friend in investment last year, and he mentioned that their institution's investment dropped by 99% last year, which paints a clear picture.
Indeed, we have breakthroughs in many fields, but whether it's DeepSeek, Yuzhu Robotics, Nezha, or Black Myth, while I cheer for them and stay up all night with excitement, these high-end and cultural sectors either have very short industrial chains or haven't really achieved large-scale production yet, only enriching a few individuals and unable to significantly boost the economy. To allow the majority of the populace to have a better life, to spend more, we must dismantle the shackles of trade barriers and fully unleash the potential of manufacturing; otherwise, it won't be realized. Now that Trump is further raising tariffs, it could trigger nations worldwide to raise trade barriers, and the trend of anti-globalization is hard to reverse, which will be fatal to China's economy.
Many people analyze the 'three driving forces' of the economy—exports, consumption, and investment—using simplistic economic numbers, believing that exports have a limited impact on China's economy; this is typical textbook thinking. Just look at China's share of global manufacturing output across various fields to understand how much the Chinese economy relies on global consumption, especially in a situation of insufficient global consumption and relatively overproduction. The reason for advocating 'dual circulation' in the past two years is essentially a measure of last resort that won't fundamentally change the situation. As for stimulating domestic consumption, you don't need to look at any data; common sense tells you how much potential there is: look at how many wealthy people are still left among your acquaintances, how many have 'moved away,' and how many have 'collapsed'? Among friends in similar economic situations, how many have been spending lavishly in recent years, and how many have been living frugally?
Second, while the U.S. certainly has many problems, it won't collapse quickly.
Some believe that the U.S. national debt has exceeded $30 trillion, surpassing the annual GDP, and that it will soon be unsustainable. I suggest everyone read 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century' if they get a chance. The book mentions that over a hundred years ago, the UK’s national debt once reached ten years' worth of GDP. Although it had factors like the gold standard and very low interest rates at that time, it still suggests that a world leader's capacity to bear debt may be far higher than we think. Just a wild guess: if U.S. debt doubles or triples and reaches around $100 trillion, it won't collapse.
The political fragmentation, bipartisan struggles, class divides, and various social chaos in the U.S. aren't enough to bring it down. Looking at history, it's clear that the governance level in the U.S. hasn’t improved much over the last hundred years: the economic crisis of 1929-33, gang violence, widespread famine; the anti-war movement in the 60s, civil rights struggles, and the so-called 'lost generation', etc. A significant advantage for the U.S. is its government’s low morality under the banner of freedom, while the public shows high tolerance. After all, you've been given plenty of freedom, so fire prevention, theft prevention, and survival are your own responsibilities. Recent reconciliations on Xiaohongshu also indicate that Americans don’t see anything wrong with this. If one assumes that the U.S. is in decline simply because it seems chaotic domestically, that viewpoint is untenable.
Finally, let's look at overall strength. Although the deindustrialization of the U.S. is a fact, the companies led by the U.S. remain strong. From consumer brands, fast food, and entertainment to financial services, rocket technology, and smart chips, China is largely at a disadvantage. After tremendous efforts, we've managed to reclaim many industrial jewels, but in higher education, fundamental research, cutting-edge technology, and cultural influence, the gap remains significant. Industrial breakthroughs have brought us back to the table, giving us a chance to shift the advantage, but U.S. strength still exists and won't automatically retreat.
As mentioned, on one hand, China's path to rise has been blocked, and on the other hand, the U.S. won't collapse quickly. Therefore, the conclusion is clear: we once again stand at the crossroads of rise or decline. Is there a third way, like kneeling to ensure safety? Unfortunately, that option doesn't exist.
Whether we like it or not, China has positioned itself as a challenger to the world order. Deng Xiaoping once said, 'Don't raise a big flag, don't be first,' and that was indeed a wise statement, but times have changed. China's economic scale and manufacturing power can no longer be hidden. A country with over a billion people has developed to this level for the first time in human history. The psychological impact on the Western world is unparalleled and incomparable to Japan and South Korea's entry into developed nations. Therefore, in the eyes of the Western world and observing nations, China is seen as a challenger to world dominance.
We differ from Japan and Germany; we don't have the option of kneeling for safety. After World War II, both Japan and Germany experienced rapid economic growth and approached U.S. levels, posing a challenge to it. However, China is different from Japan and Germany; besides the differences in scale and values mentioned above, China is an independent and sovereign major power. Japan and Germany were defeated in WWII, and Japan essentially became a vassal of the U.S., posing only economic threats. But China has the potential to completely pull the U.S. down from its throne of dominance. Even so, Japan and Germany have faced multiple crackdowns, with their GDP dropping from about 60% of the U.S. to merely a fraction. Additionally, when calculating per capita, China's development level still lags far behind Japan and Germany. If China yields, the average citizen's living standards will regress to at least 20 years ago, if not worse.
In the face of a historical upheaval that hasn't occurred in a thousand years, China has only two choices: to rise or to fall.